Packers vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks, Prediction

Packers vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers (left) and Tom Brady.

  • The Buccaneers are home favorites in Week 3 against the Packers.
  • Tom Brady has gotten the better of Aaron Rodgers more often than not in his career.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the game and lays out his pick below.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Odds

Sunday, Sept. 25
4:25 p.m. ET

Packers Odds+1.5
Buccaneers Odds-1.5
Moneyline+106 / -124
TimeSunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel.

When Tom Brady joined Tampa Bay in 2020, it set up an immediate rivalry at the top of the NFC withthetwo best veteran quarterbacks in the NFL in Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Although their matchups haven't necessarily lived up to the hype for the quarterbacks themselves thus far in the last two seasons, Brady and Rodgers are expected to be among the final NFC teams in the mix come January.

Right now, this game is more about who isn't playing rather than who is. Tampa Bay opened as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday night, and suspensions and injuries have moved it straight downward. Tampa Bay's offense has been pretty terrible by its standards through two weeks, and that's not going to get any easier in Week 3, given the injuries mounting.

Green Bay had its Week 1 stinker against the Vikings and its twice-annual beatdown of the Bears, so it's hard to know exactly what the Packers are at this point in the season.

It's hard to imagine that a game between Brady and Rodgers would have a total of 42 given how much they elevate the players around them. But given the lack of surrounding talent on these offenses and the true talent of the defenses, don't expect a shootout in America's Game of the Week on Sunday in Tampa.

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Packers vs. Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Buccaneers match up statistically:

Packers vs. Buccaneers DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA62
Pass DVOA101
Rush DVOA415
Overall DVOA2723
Pass DVOA2010
Rush DVOA2330

Tampa Bay had matchups with two solid defenses in its first two games, but it's still hard to believe how poor the Buccaneers offense has actually been. They've scored 39 points in two games, but the defense and turnovers have carried them to a lot of that offense.

The Bucs averaged four yards per play against the Saints and couldn't establish any type of offensive consistently. The offense has the fourth-lowest success rate in the entire league – worse than the Panthers and Jets – through two games.

Tampa has only four total drives of 50+ yards this season, and Rodgers isn't going to give many short fields given his excellent interception rate numbers. He's plenty content throwing the ball away or taking sacks and punting before throwing the ball into tight windows or forcing potential turnovers.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our NFL model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

Brady is playing like he doesn't trust his offensive line, too. Even though Green Bay's pass rush has largely underwhelmed to this point, injuries along the line are clearly causing problems for Brady and his timing. Donovan Smith is listed as doubtful for this game, and given that he didn't practice Friday, it seems unlikely he'll go.

Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin is out, and both Russell Gage and Julio Jones are questionable. None was a full participant in the Friday practice, nor was Breshad Perriman. That means that Tampa will likely be without three or four (and maybe five) of its top receiving options.

They did sign Cole Beasley, but I'm doubtful he and Brady will develop the necessary chemistry to run his timing and option routes effectively in a few days.

While Tampa's offense has struggled mightily, the Bucs defense has been the best in football through two weeks. They've allowed only 13 total points, seven in garbage time. One under-discussed element of last year was the amount of injuries the Bucs had defensively.

Now fully healthy, the defense is able to play effective man coverage and bring pressure. Green Bay will not have Sammy Watkins, and it's hard to trust anyone else on the current roster to consistently beat tight-man coverage.

Betting Picks

There are times that I believe injuries are overpriced in NFL games because of the narratives that set up around them. Also, there are not that many non-QB players who truly move the market. With that being said, a cluster injury situation like the one in Tampa is a clear exception.

This is an example — like the Colts last week without their top two receiving options — where I'm not sure how you can clearly and accurately measure the impact of the losses. Neither offense has played particularly well through two weeks, and scoring in the red zone is going to be especially difficult with the run games struggling.

Leonard Fournette is also questionable for this game, and even if he does play, he is one of the worst backs in the NFL in Rushing Yards over Expected, per NextGen Stats.

It's hard to see how either offense is consistently scoring the ball. While matchups with totals this low often feature bad and turnover-prone QBs, I like that this game has two excellent ball control and protection quarterbacks.

You're not going to see Brady and Rodgers giving away the ball frequently. I liked Green Bay at +2.5 or better, but the value in the number is gone now. Instead, I'd play under 42 but would not go any lower than the current market price. 

Pick: Under 42 | Bet to 42

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.