Thursday Night Football Best Bets, Picks, Player Props for Bengals vs Ravens
NFL Week 11 kicks off with an AFC North rivalry game at M&T Bank Stadium, and we have Thursday Night Football Best Bets, Picks, Player Props for Bengals vs Ravens.
The Bengals vs Ravens spread for TNF has Baltimore as 3.5-to-4-point favorites (depending on the sportsbook) with an over/under of 46.5. We have one betting analyst who is on Joe Burrow and the Bengals to cover the spread, plus props for Gus Edwards and Odafe Oweh.
Our staff of NFL analysts are all over this game with this Thursday Night Football betting preview. Here are our experts' three Bengals vs Ravens best bets.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Bengals vs Ravens Odds
Bengals vs. Ravens
It felt like the Bengals had gotten their season back on track after surviving Joe Burrow's calf injury and notching huge wins over the 49ers and Bills coming out of the bye week, but the unexpected loss to the Texans has this team right back on the brink at 5-4.
If the playoffs started today, the Bengals would be out. This game holds particular significance because Cincinnati is 0-2 in the division from the first two weeks of the season, when Burrow was at his worst, along with 1-4 in the AFC. Both of those marks are key tiebreakers and Cincinnati can't afford to lose any more ground.
This is a must-have game for the Bengals, and if it's a must-win game with your backs against the wall, would you rather have anyone more than Burrow?
If the Bengals are going to hang and potentially win this game, it'll have to be Joe Cool. As strong as Baltimore's defense has been, the corners are the weak spot, and that's only intensified with the absence of Marlon Humphrey.
Check out some of the WR lines allowed by Baltimore this season: Nico Collins 6/80/0, Tee Higgins 8/89/2, George Pickens 6/130/1, Amon-Ra St. Brown 13/102/0, Amari Cooper 6/98/0. Star receivers can eat against Baltimore, and few pass-catchers have shined brighter this season than Ja'Marr Chase. Expect Burrow to target Chase early and often for a big game.
The Bengals can hang and win this game if Burrow and Chase are the best players on the field, and that's exactly what they've been in Cincinnati's biggest wins.
Burrow is 13-5 (72%) ATS after a loss and 5-2 (71%) ATS as a division underdog, in case you need any more reason to trust him. Jackson has also been shockingly bad as a favorite of between three and 10 points, a miserable 5-16 ATS (24%).
Pick: Bengals +4 (-110)
Bengals vs. Ravens
It's pretty clear to me at this point that Edwards shouldn't be the go-to guy anymore, and I think John Harbaugh realizes that, too.
The Ravens backfield has too many mouths to feed at this point among Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell and Edwards. Harbaugh already mentioned Mitchell is in for more work against the Bengals, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Edwards, Mitchell and Hill all in a three-way split for the backfield. Of late, Mitchell has been fantastic the last two weeks and the workload for Edwards has dwindled greatly.
While this is a good matchup for Edwards, I don't see the volume being there in this spot. I would hit this line all the way down to 39.5.
Pick: Gus Edwards Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) | Play to Under 39.5
Bengals vs. Ravens
By Cody Goggin
I’ve put out a couple of Thursday night sack best bets already this season with great success, so let's do it again.
Joe Burrow’s sack issues through his first few years in the league are already well-known. This year, he's just 10th in sacks taken with 22, but his offensive line has not been doing him any favors.
According to Pro Football Focus, Joe Burrow has been pressured 101 times this year (13th-most in the league), but only four of these pressures have been due to Burrow himself. The Bengals offensive line has been responsible for 94.1% of Cincinnati’s allowed pressures this season, which is the highest mark in the league.
The left side of the Cincinnati offensive line has been the biggest issue. The left tackle position is responsible for 34.7% of Burrow’s allowed pressures (second most in the NFL) and the left guard position is at 25.7% (fourth most).
Manning these two positions have been big-name free-agent Orlando Brown Jr. at tackle and second-year player Cordell Volson at guard. Brown’s 35 pressures allowed this season is the second most among all players in the NFL this year, per PFF. Volson’s 26 pressures allowed is fourth among guards in the league and his PFF pass blocking grade of 29.9 ranks 80th among 84 qualifying guards this season.
On the opposite side, Baltimore has been getting a lot of production from its edge rushers this season. Defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald has found a way to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, even out of some unlikely names.
Baltimore has three edge rushers ranked in the top 21 this season in PFF’s pass rushing productivity metric: Kyle Van Noy, Odafe Oweh and Jadeveon Clowney.
Of these three, it’s Oweh who has been getting most of the pressure from the right side of the defense this season and therefore will be taking on Brown and Volson the most. 68.1% of Oweh’s pass rush snaps have come from this side of the line this season. All three of his snaps have come from this side of the defense as well.
At +160, I like taking Oweh to record at least half a sack on Thursday night against Joe Burrow, taking advantage of this weak left side of the Cincinnati offensive line. I would take this down to +130.
Pick: Odafe Oweh Over 0.25 Sacks (+160)
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