Rovell: Fade Chiefs, Mahomes at Home vs. Jaguars
Picture by Getty Images. Edited by Matt Roembke.
Coming off a 5-1 week on my picks — "Fade Rovell" — I'm overly confident I can win against the sharps again this week.
And I love the way I'm going to start: the Chiefs team total, which is priced at BetMGM at under 30.5.
Patrick Mahomes is one of those guys that you always assume is going to hit the over. And sure, it's true that the Kansas City Chiefs are the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL with 29.2 points per game.
They're the best team in the league at several other offensive categories, too, including:
- Yards per game
- Points per play
- Yards per play
- Touchdowns per game
- Third down conversion percentage
- Fourth down conversion percentage
- Red zone touchdown scoring percentage
But that just means they're drastically overvalued based on that pedigree alone. The Chiefs have by far the highest single point total for any team this postseason.
And the Chiefs are also one of nine NFL teams who score fewer points at home than they do on the road. In fact, they have the largest delta between being home and being on the road at -7.7 points — nearly double the second-worst team.
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Worst Scoring Teams at Home vs. Road
Then you have the perfect overreaction. The Chargers only scored 30 points against the Jaguars because of Trevor Lawrence's freak four interceptions. The casual fan might focus on the 30, or other on-the-surface offensive numbers from LA. How about the Jags defense only allowing 20 yards rushing in eight attempts in the second half?
How about the fact that the Jaguars have the fifth-best defense in football over the last month, better than the vaunted defenses in Buffalo, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Dallas?
How about how well the other Josh Allen has played? And don't underestimate the abilities of Foye Oluokun and Roy Robertson-Harris, either.
The Chiefs have scored 30 at home ONCE this season. Don't expect them to do it on Saturday.
Take the Chiefs total under 30.5 at BetMGM.
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