Salt Lake Stallions-San Antonio Commanders AAF Betting Guide: Can Logan Woodside Take Care of Business at Home?

NFL

Credit:

Courtesy of @aafcommanders/Twitter. Pictured: San Antonio QB Logan Woodside

Ian Hartitz

Updated:

Sep 23, 2021, 02:55 PM EDT

Betting Odds: Salt Lake Stallions at San Antonio Commanders

Spread: San Antonio -5.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
TV: NFL Network

Betting market: The total hasn’t moved since open, though there’s been some early support for the Commanders, who opened as 5-point favorites.

Week 6 Takeaways

Salt Lake’s 22-9 Win Over Memphis

Josh Woodrum had one of his best games yet, completing 24-of-37 (65%) passes for 243 yards (6.6 Y/A) with two touchdowns and an interception. He appears to be back to full health after dealing with an early-season hamstring injury and has grown more comfortable throwing downfield.

The run game has heavily featured Joel Bouagnon since Branden Oliver was lost for the season, and Terron Ward is fighting for Terrell Newby’s backup spot after the latter back lost a fumble in Week 6. The passing game continues to feature De’Mornay Pierson-El along with Adonis Jennings, Anthony Denham and Nick Truesdell.

Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Use My Projections to Find the Best Week 7 Bets Read now

San Antonio’s 37-6 Win Over Atlanta

The Commanders are rolling and finished their four-game road trip with a decisive victory over Aaron Murray and Co. They’ve won three straight games thanks in large part to recent excellence from Logan Woodside, who completed 17-of-23 (74%) for 164 yards (7.1 Y/A) with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Kenneth Farrow and Trey Williams have formed an efficient running back combo that perfectly complements one of the league’s deepest wide receiver rooms featuring Mekale McKay, Greg Ward Jr., De’Marcus Ayers and Alonzo Moore.

Which team is healthier? Salt Lake

The Stallions offense has kept itself pretty much fully healthy since losing Oliver indefinitely, while the defense is only dealing with injuries to defensive back Cody Brown (knee), linebacker Gionni Paul (ankle) and defensive lineman Mike Purcell (wrist) and game-changer Karter Schult (rib). Only Paul didn’t managed to at least get in a limited practice on Thursday.

The Commanders, meanwhile, are fairly banged up on both sides of the ball.

Starting receivers De’Marcus Ayers (lower leg) and Mekale McKay (ankle) are banged up while tight end Cole Hunt (lower leg) and offensive lineman Mason Gentry (lower back) are far from 100%. Defensive lineman Ra’Zahn Howard (knee) and cornerback Zack Sanchez (hamstring) appear to be the team’s defenders most at risk of missing Saturday’s game.

AAF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7 Read now

Key matchup: Josh Woodrum vs. San Antonio’s Pass Rush

The Commanders boast Pro Football Focus’ second-best pass rush thanks to a deep pool of defensive tackles and edge defenders. San Antonio boasts six combined edge defenders and interior defenders graded among PFF’s top-25 defensive linemen.

The defense’s problem has been its inability to stop opposing offenses if it can’t get to the quarterback and create negative and/or splash plays. The Commanders have the worst pass and rush defense in terms of yards per attempt and carry allowed.

Woodrum has the league’s quickest release and is well-equipped to fend off the Commanders’ fearsome pass rush with quick hitting plays to stud slot receiver De’Mornay Pierson-El.

Woodrum’s ability to take care of the ball will be vital to the Stallions’ chances of pulling the upset.

DFS edge: Salt Lake WRs

There’s more value in the Salt Lake offense in addition to Pierson-El, who is too underpriced as a featured No. 1 receiver.

Brian Tyms managed to play 70% of the offense’s snaps last week and offers a ton of salary relief when attempting to squeeze Trent Richardson and/or Charles Johnson into lineups.

Bet to watch: Salt Lake +5.5

The Commanders have been playing their best ball as of late, but the Stallions have at least managed to keep pretty much all of their games close this season win-or-lose and regardless of the opponent.