Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Ride with Manziel If Memphis Opens as a Dog?

Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Ride with Manziel If Memphis Opens as a Dog? article feature image
Credit:

Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: Johnny Manziel

  • Use Sean Koerner's projected spreads and totals from his AAF Power Ratings to bet Week 7 games, including Johnny Manziel's potential debut in Birmingham-Memphis.

After another high-scoring week in the AAF, one thing I’ll be looking for this week is how much the totals are elevated as a result. There’s a chance a couple open a tad high, in which case I’ll come in on the under.

You can use my projected totals (and spreads) to identify what lines we should be looking to bet — from as soon as the market opens and until lines close.

There’s also a spreadsheet that you can use to plug whatever line and juice is available at your sportsbook to get an estimate of your perceived edge. You’ll also find a recommended bet amount based on the size of your bankroll, which you can customize.

You can download the Excel file at the end of this story, but for now, here’s a pre-filled example from a past week:

Now let’s get into Week 7.

Here are my power ratings as of writing, which I’ve used to estimate lines for each matchup. We’ll dig into all four below:

Orlando Apollos (5-1) at Atlanta Legends (2-4)

  • Projected spread: Orlando -12
  • Projected total: 42.5
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

The Apollos suffered their first lost last week at the hands of Arizona. I’m treating it as a hiccup rather than anything to be concerned with — I didn’t even consider removing them from the top spot in my power ratings.

The Apollos are now headed to Atlanta to play arguably the league’s worst team. There’s no question that Orlando will open up as a double-digit favorite — by how much remain to be seen. But I’m capping the Apollos at -12.

It’s worth noting that double-digit favorites are 0-4 against the spread, which could cause some bettors to be more hesitant about laying 10+ points moving forward as the AAF has been a pretty volatile league to handicap so far.

Salt Lake Stallions (2-4) at San Antonio Commanders (4-2)

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