The K.C. Steam: Chiefs Line, Public Starting to Back Mahomes

The K.C. Steam: Chiefs Line, Public Starting to Back Mahomes article feature image

Justin Casterline/Getty Images. Pictured: Andy Reid (left) and Patrick Mahomes.

The Kansas City Chiefs opened last Sunday night as 3-point favorites at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. As the number came out, bets, money, pesos, dinero, all of it started flowing in on the Bengals.

Ninety minutes later, the Chiefs were -1.5.

By the morning, it was pick'em.

Then came the real fun.

A day later — Tuesday early morning — the Chiefs were 2.5-point underdogs, a 5.5-point move from the opener.

Patrick Mahomes, who injured his ankle in the AFC Divisional Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars and limped his way across the field in front of all of America for more than a half of football, was back practicing — in full.

Another day of practice for Patrick Mahomes 👀

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 26, 2023

Wednesday came and went. The Chiefs were now down to +1. When you woke up Thursday morning, KC were the favorites again.

Now, as we all prepare for the AFC Championship game Sunday night, the Chiefs are up to a 1.5-point favorite at home vs. the Bengals.

According to our Action Labs market database, the Chiefs are currently only receiving 31% of the tickets on the spread, which would be the lowest bet percentage for Mahomes in his 93-start career.

Most people know that by now. We've certainly hammered it here and on our shows. But it's not the aggregate bet and money splits that tell the real story.

What we should really be focusing in on is what that bet percentage has looked like over time.

When the Bengals were still 2-point favorites back on Tuesday, they had 81% of the tickets, which had stayed steady since about Monday afternoon.

Then, we started to see the dip. By the time the Chiefs were favored, Cincinnati's bet percentage had dipped 10%. Right now, it's down to 68%.

The Bengals may have the public's backing, but ever since the news shifted midweek, it's been all aboard the K.C. steam engine.

Scott Shelton of BetMGM basically describes the market: tickets and public heavy on the Bengals, handle pretty split.

2/ "Tickets just over 2/1 in favor of the Bengals. Money is really close, a little bit more on the Chiefs, but no decision right now. Sharp play on both sides as the week went on."

"They're playing the 'dog on the moneyline, over 2/1 tickets and 4/1 money on the Bengals."

— Patrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas) January 29, 2023

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