Toronto Maple Leafs vs Carolina Hurricanes Odds, Picks, Prediction: NHL Betting Preview for Sunday

Sunday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs travel to PNC Arena to take on the Carolina Hurricanes for the third and final time this season.

When these two teams faced off just over a week ago in Toronto, the Hurricanes scored twice in the final two minutes to tie the game before winning in a shootout. Carolina will look to sweep the season series tonight in what should be a battle between two of the Eastern Conference’s best. 

Let’s dig into the Leafs vs Hurricanes odds and make my Leafs vs Hurricanes picks and Leafs vs Hurricanes prediction.

Leafs vs Hurricanes Pick: Jake Guentzel Anytime Goalscorer (+160 at FanDuel | Play to +150)

Sitting at 23-10-2 since Jan. 1, the Maple Leafs are tied for the second-most wins in the NHL in 2024. Toronto’s 2.68 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 and 2.50 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 over this span rank eighth and 13th respectively. The Maple Leafs’ 51.69 xGF% at 5-on-5 since the new year is a testament to the consistency in which they’ve controlled play at even strength.

With Mitch Marner still out of the lineup, Toronto will continue to rely even more heavily on Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly. They’ve been up to the task thus far, as the trio has posted 11, nine and 10 points respectively across the team’s past five games. Even John Tavares has begun to heat up as he's riding a four-game point streak with 10 points in that span.

Scoring — even without Marner — is hardly a concern for the team with the second-most goals per game in the NHL this season. Goaltending — on the other hand — is the bigger question mark.

Joseph Woll will start between the pipes tonight for Toronto. Since returning to the lineup in late February, he is 2-2-0 with a 3.25 GAA and a .876 SV%. He's given up at least three goals in each of his last three starts.

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Carolina is one of the two teams with more wins than Toronto since the new year. The Hurricanes’ recent 10-2-1 surge has put them just three points behind the Metropolitan Division-leading New York Rangers and in the running for the Presidents’ Trophy.

Carolina hasn’t skipped a beat since bolstering its top six by acquiring Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Guentzel has posted 11 points through seven games while Kuznetsov has five points in nine games.

In the Hurricanes’ seven games with both of their trade deadline additions in the lineup, they are playing to a 5-on-5 xGF% of 55.33. Carolina’s 2.97 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 over this span ranks fifth in the NHL, and its power play is up to third in the NHL. 

Most importantly, Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov have stabilized the Hurricanes’ goaltending situation of late. Andersen — in particular — has been excellent since returning to the lineup, boasting a 5-0-0 record with a 1.40 GAA and a .946 SV%. He is likely to get the nod tonight against his former team.

Tonight the Maple Leafs will look to avenge last week's collapse, but they are in a difficult schedule spot after traveling on the second leg of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes will also be motivated after blowing a third-period lead against the Capitals on Friday.

Overall, I like the Hurricanes to win this game, but not at the price we're getting (-190 odds at BetMGM). Instead, I'll take the new guy — Guentzel — to score his first goal in front of the Carolina crowd. He scored in back-to-back road games but hasn't scored in the Hurricanes' past two games despite recording seven total shots on goal.

After Guentzel had two primary assists in last week's win over the Maple Leafs, look for him to find the back of the net tonight at +150 or better.

Pick: Jake Guentzel Anytime Goalscorer (+160 at FanDuel | Play to +150)