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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Friday, October 9, Frank Ammirante has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Penguins ML (+105) at Blue Jackets
- Ducks/Jets Under 6.5 (-118)
Penguins vs Blue Jackets Pick
The Penguins (2-2-0) have lost two in a row: 3-2 vs. the Jets and 5-3 at the Capitals. They'll look to get back on track on the road against the Blue Jackets.
So far, Pittsburgh has been able to put the puck in the net, ranking 3rd in goals per game. They're also tied for 3rd in shots on goal and tied for 7th in power-play percentage. Looking at the advanced metrics, the Penguins are 7th in Expected Goals per game.
This is despite Sidney Crosby only having two points in four games. Pittsburgh has gotten contributions from up and down their roster, including Thomas Novak (5 points in 4 games) and Declan Carlile (4 points in 4 games).
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets (1-1-0) are on five days' rest, having not played since last Saturday, when they lost 4-1 to the Mammoth.
Columbus is currently 32nd in Expected Goals per game and 26th in Shot Attempts%. They've struggled on the penalty kill, tied for 25th in that category. That's bad news against a Penguins power play that has been effective so far this season.
I'm going with the Penguins moneyline because I think we'll see some rust from the Blue Jackets after such a long layoff.
Pittsburgh has looked like the better team so far, so I like getting them at plus money.
Pick: Penguins ML (+105)
Ducks vs Jets Pick
The Anaheim Ducks (2-1-0) are coming off a 5-2 home loss to the Edmonton Oilers. That was despite ending the first period with a 2-0 lead.
Now they take on the Winnipeg Jets (3-0-1) on the road. Both of these teams have struggled to generate scoring chances so far. The Ducks rank 19th in Shot Attempts% while the Jets are 25th. Both teams rank near the bottom in Expected Goals per game, with Anaheim 31st and Winnipeg 20th.
So far this year, the Jets' games have resulted in the following scorelines: 3-2, 3-2, 3-2, and 4-3 in overtime. They're allowing only 2.5 goals per game (9th).
Given how sloppy the Ducks were defensively in the 5-2 loss vs. the Oilers, I'm betting they'll make it a priority to clean that up in this road game.
With that in mind, I'm taking Under 6.5 in this spot. Usually, Winnipeg games are listed at 5.5, so I like getting that extra goal here.
We'll take the better number because of Connor Hellebuyck's absence, especially with Stuart Skinner (.920 SV%) playing well so far.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-118)
