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The Minnesota Wild (2-0-1) and Tampa Bay Lightning (2-1-0) will meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored at -154 on the moneyline, with the Wild at +128 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 5.5 (-134o / +110 u).
Let's get into our Wild vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Wild vs. Lightning Prediction
- Pick: Under 5.5 (+110)
Our Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay best bet is Under 5.5 goals tonight, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your NHL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NHL odds page.
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Wild vs Lightning Odds
| Wild Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 5.5 -134o / 110u | +128 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 5.5 -134o / 110u | -154 |
- Wild vs. Lightning puck line: Wild +1.5 (-205), Lightning -1.5 (+164)
- Wild vs. Lightning over/under: 5.5 (-134o / +110u)
- Wild vs. Lightning moneyline: Wild +128, Lightning -154
- Wild vs. Lightning best bet: Under 5.5 (+110)
Wild vs. Lightning Preview
Despite grabbing a point in the standings, the Wild's last game was a dud overall. Minnesota got outplayed in Buffalo, posting just a 29.06% expected goal share at all strengths in a 3-2 overtime loss.
It was a step back from the first two games, when the Wild controlled play with expected goal shares of 62.24% against Nashville and 66.25% against Boston.
Bouncing back on the road against a tough Lightning team is a tall task tonight.
At least the top line gave Minnesota something to build on. Kirill Kaprizov is skating with a pair of former KHL standouts in Danila Yurov and Maxim Shabanov, and the all-Russian trio looks to be finding a groove.
Yurov and Shabanov both found the net against the Sabres, one of the few positives for the Wild in that game overall.
Jesper Wallstedt has also been terrific to start the season, with a .933 save percentage and 3.4 goals saved above expected. With Filip Gustavsson out for another month or so, Wallstedt will carry the bulk of the workload and is the likely starter again tonight.
On the back end, Brock Faber is out indefinitely after fracturing his skull in the preseason. Jared Spurgeon has stepped up nicely next to Quinn Hughes on the top pairing, and Olli Maatta has been a nice addition to the Wild's defensive core so far.
Tampa Bay has been the exact opposite of Minnesota. The Lightning threw up a dud right out of the gate, falling 5-1 to the Rangers on opening night, but looked in complete control against Washington and Philadelphia since. The Flyers game on Monday was especially lopsided, with Tampa Bay racking up 18 high-danger chances to Philly's 4 in a 4-1 win.
The scoring has come from all over the lineup. Ilya Mikheyev and Pontus Holmberg each had a goal and an assist against the Flyers; Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel scored, and Nikita Kucherov chipped in two assists.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has settled in nicely after a rough opener, winning his last two starts while allowing just two goals. Tampa Bay also gets the rest advantage, playing at home after a couple of days off while the Wild come in from Buffalo in the middle of a road trip.
I'm looking at the total, though. These teams are a combined 5-1 to the under this season, and both rank in the top seven in goals against per 60 and expected goals against.
Nothing is confirmed, but Wallstedt and Vasilevskiy are the likely starters, and neither goalie has been giving much away. Pair that with two sound defensive teams, and this one should be a grind from the opening faceoff.
Some books have this total at 6, which is where I'm playing it, but I don’t mind grabbing plus-money on the under at 5.5 either.
Right now, the Action App shows 90% of public bets on the over, but we've tracked sharp money hitting the under seven times. I'll side with the sharps tonight.
Best Bet: Under 5.5 (+110, FanDuel)
