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The Toronto Maple Leafs (1-2-0) and Vegas Golden Knights (2-1-0) will meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Golden Knights are favored at -170 on the moneyline, with the Maple Leafs at +140 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 6.5 (-110o / -110u).
Let's get into our Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Prediction
- Pick: Under 6.5 (-110)
Our Toronto vs. Vegas best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your NHL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NHL odds page.
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Maple Leafs vs Golden Knights Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 6.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +148 | 6.5 -112o / -108u | -170 |
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights puck line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-188), Golden Knights -1.5 (+148)
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights over/under: 6.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights moneyline: Maple Leafs +140, Golden Knights -170
- Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights best bet: Under 6.5
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs Preview
The Maple Leafs were handed some luck on Tuesday.
In front of their home fans, the Nashville Predators ran the score up on them midway through the game, 3-0. And if you had bet on the Predators (like yours truly), you’d be thinking that you’re sitting pretty, right?
Wrong.
Right after Nashville’s third goal, it awakened a beast. The Leafs followed up with three goals themselves.
I still don’t really know what to make of this team yet. Obviously, they have the star power in Auston Matthews, William Nylander and now both Kirill Marchenko and Gavin McKenna, but it is the depth that concerns me – and it always has.
Right now, Toronto’s expected goals share is at a strong 7.4, but its expected goals against is a morbid 9.28. That’s sixth worst in the league.
To add, another concern is the goaltending. The Leafs are putting all their eggs in Sergei Bobrovsky’s basket – which is certainly saying something. Bobrovsky’s played a lot (emphasis on a lot) of hockey over the past five years and at 38 years old, you wonder about his durability.
He has a decent 1.1 GSAx early in the season, but he’s also let up six goals on 53 shots faced, accounting for the Leafs’ two losses of the season.
Vegas Golden Knights Preview
The Golden Knights headed into Seattle and stomped all over the Kraken 6-2.
It’s been a really strong start to the season for the Knights, winning three out of their first four games played, with the only loss being a one-goal game to the Ducks.
Everything we’ve seen out of the Knights has been expected. Their expected goals share is ranked second, just behind Utah at 9.75, but their defense could be better with a 19th-best 6.76 xGA.
I wouldn’t be concerned, though. This defense has a solid foundation with Shea Theodore, Rasmus Andersson, and Noah Hanifin. Not only that, but I’m expecting a solid season out of the goaltending of Adin Hill and Carter Hart.
Up front, you’re talking about one of the more high-powered stars in the NHL. Jack Eichel and Mark Stone are a problem together, and then you have Mitch Marner on the second line, and then up-and-comer Trevor Connelly on the third.
It’s the perfect storm in the desert.
One little tidbit is that Victor Olofsson left mid-game against the Kraken after a dirty hit by Seattle’s Ben Meyers and didn’t come back. Olofsson had led the Knights in goals to start the season with four, so you wonder how coach Ryan Craig will navigate this.
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Pick
This is a dicey pick because we have two high-powered offenses with unpredictable goaltending.
Yet, my model predicts that this game is going to be a lower-scoring game.
This is the first season I’m rolling out this model, and thus far, I’ve had pretty solid success, going 14-6. So we’re going to trust it here.
I do think after the playoffs last season, we saw Hart get back into his groove. Before he took his leave of absence from hockey, he was one of the better young goalies in the league. And when he returned, things were shaky for a second.
But his work in the playoffs helped massively. And against a top-heavy Maple Leafs roster, this will be the ultimate test. The model seems to trust him. I will too.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-110, FanDuel)
