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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Monday, October 19, Nick Griffith has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Avalanche Over 3.5 Team Total (-135, FanDuel) | Avalanche -1.5 (+110, FanDuel)
- Gavin McKenna 2+ Shots on Goal (-135, FanDuel)
- Penguins vs. Mammoth Over 6.5 (-128, FanDuel)
Avalanche vs Flyers Pick
I’m not interested in laying the price on Colorado’s moneyline, so I’ll look at the Avalanche’s team total instead. Colorado has had no trouble scoring against teams near the bottom of the standings this season, scoring eight against Los Angeles, six against St. Louis, seven in Calgary, and five against Pittsburgh on Friday.
Philadelphia fits right into that group and might be at the bottom. The Flyers finally got their first win Saturday against Ottawa, but Philadelphia is allowing the third-most expected goals against per 60 minutes at 3.63, and I don’t see the Flyers doing much to slow down a team of Colorado’s caliber.
For that reason too, I’ll grab the Avalanche on the puck line at slightly better than even money.
Pick: Avalanche Over 3.5 Team Total (-135, FanDuel) | Avalanche -1.5 (+110, FanDuel)
Sharks vs Maple Leafs Pick
Gavin McKenna had a strange night against Buffalo last week. The rookie played just 6:36 in Toronto’s 5-4 overtime loss, by far the lowest ice time of his NHL career, and didn’t take a shift after the 10:20 mark of the second period.
Head coach Jim Hiller took the blame afterward, saying that was his decision. He explained that he meant to get McKenna back out after two second-period penalties but never did, and admitted he should have played him early in the third.
So it wasn’t exactly a benching, but from the outside, it wasn’t exactly one either. Either way, McKenna responded. He put four shots on goal against the Islanders on Saturday and was noticeably more involved, and I think that little wake-up call keeps him aggressive tonight.
McKenna is also more important to this lineup right now, with John Tavares out week to week with a lower-body injury. He’ll likely stay on the third line with Colton Sissons and Bo Groulx, but he still has a spot on the top power-play unit, which gives him plenty of chances to shoot.
The matchup helps, too. San Jose allows 27.5 shots on goal per game, and McKenna has gone over this line in four of his last six games.
Pick: Gavin McKenna 2+ Shots on Goal (-135, FanDuel)
Penguins vs Mammoth Pick
There’s a good case for goals in this one. Pittsburgh has allowed five or more in each of its last three games, Utah has scored four or more in three of its last four, and these teams went a combined 5-1 to the over last week.
The numbers say it’s no accident. Utah and Pittsburgh rank third and fourth in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, per MoneyPuck, generating a little over three apiece. Pittsburgh is also allowing the sixth-most expected goals against per 60 at 3.48. Utah’s power play, meanwhile, just took over the league lead at 35.3%.
Neither team has confirmed a starter, but none of the options have been at their best early this season. Sergei Murashov’s .883 save percentage is the best among goalies available on either side.
Nobody has played more games between the pipes since the start of last season than Karel Vejmelka, so he’d be the safe bet to start for Utah. Still, he played both games against Edmonton last week and got chased Saturday after allowing five goals in about a period and a half.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mammoth gave him a break and went with Sebastian Cossa.
Either way, I’m not counting on a goalie duel here, so I’ll grab the over.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-128, FanDuel)
