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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Saturday, October 17, Nick Griffith has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Over 5.5
- Blue Jackets Moneyline
- Golden Knights -1.5
- Golden Knights vs Penguins — Over 6.5
- Oilers vs Mammoth — Over 6.5
Devils vs Capitals Pick
This one sets up nicely for an over. New Jersey ranks first in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (3.34), and Washington is fifth (2.83).
The Devils beat the Rangers 7-1 on Thursday, with six of those goals coming at even strength. Luke Hughes scored twice, and Nico Hischier, Stefan Noesen and Arseny Gritsyuk also scored. Timo Meier, Dawson Mercer and Amadeus Lombardi each had two assists, so New Jersey is getting production up and down the lineup.
Washington’s last game was a high-scoring one too. The Capitals beat Montreal 5-4 on Wednesday, with Alex Tuch scoring twice, including once shorthanded, and adding an assist.
That said, Washington was somewhat fortunate to get the win. At 5-on-5, the Capitals lost the expected goals battle 3.36 to 1.78 and gave up 12 high-danger chances while generating just two. It’s one game, but that’s a slight concern against one of the best 5-on-5 offenses in the league to this point.
Washington hasn’t played since Wednesday, so the Capitals should be well rested for a 1 p.m. ET puck drop. I expect both teams to keep the offense rolling.
Most books have moved this total to 6.5, so I’ll grab over 5.5 on Polymarket at 58 cents.
Pick: Over 5.5 (58 Cents, Polymarket)
Rangers vs Blue Jackets Pick
Earlier this week, I said the Rangers would slide down the standings without Igor Shesterkin, and the 7-1 loss in New Jersey I mentioned above didn’t do anything to change my mind.
New Jersey outchanced the Rangers 69-43 and posted expected goal shares of 72.01% and 70.14% in the second and third periods, per Natural Stat Trick. New York managed just 12 shots at even strength without scoring once, and Pavel Dorofeyev’s power-play goal in the third came with the game long gone.
It was also Dylan Garand’s first ugly outing of his career. He allowed four goals on 13 shots in a little over a period before giving way to Spencer Martin. Garand had been great up to that point, but there’s a risk of leaning so heavily on a rookie, and New York doesn’t have much of a safety net behind him.
Columbus hasn’t been much better lately. The Blue Jackets are off to a rough 2-3 start and gave up four power-play goals in an ugly loss to Florida last time out. This is more about which team bounces back, and I think it’s the Jackets.
Columbus is at home against a Rangers group that looked completely out of sorts in New Jersey. I’d rather be early on the Rangers’ slide than late, so I’ll back the Blue Jackets on the moneyline.
Pick: Blue Jackets Moneyline (-132, FanDuel)
Penguins vs Golden Knights Pick
This is a great schedule spot. Pittsburgh lost to Colorado last night by the score of 5-2 and now flies to Vegas for the second half of a back-to-back. About as tough a two-game stretch as you’ll find in the West.
Vegas is waiting, fully rested. The Golden Knights are 7-2 and sit first in the Western Conference after a 5-2 win over Nashville and a 6-2 win over Calgary this week.
With Arturs Silovs starting in Colorado, Sergei Murashov should get the net tonight.
Murashov has been decent through three starts and looked great against Columbus, stopping 45 of 47 shots to steal a point in an overtime loss. He followed that with a tough night in Chicago to open this four-game road trip, allowing four goals on 19 shots, including a bad one that proved costly. He has plenty of talent, but he seems prone to letting in a bad one a little too often.
It doesn’t help that Chicago was easily the softest stop on this trip. Colorado, Vegas and Utah make up the rest, and Pittsburgh just hasn’t looked like it’s clicking consistently. Tired legs tend to show up late in games, and that’s when I think Vegas pulls away here.
The moneyline is too pricey, so I’ll take Vegas on the puckline at close to even money. An empty-netter could always help, but I think the Knights run away with this one.
I also like the over.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been as consistent as it’d like, but the Penguins can generate offense. Both teams rank in the top 10 in expected goals per 60 minutes and are averaging more than three goals per 60 through the first handful of games.
Add in a tired Penguins team and a young goalie in Murashov, and this has the makings of a high-scoring game.
Picks:
- Golden Knights -1.5 (-108, FanDuel)
- Over 6.5 (-118, FanDuel)
Oilers vs Mammoth Pick
Edmonton gets a quick shot at revenge after Utah won 4-2 in Edmonton on Thursday, and the Oilers will have some help this time.
Zach Hyman, Colton Dach and Jake Walman are all expected back tonight, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on track to return late next week. It’s a good time for Edmonton to start getting healthy, with tonight’s game in Utah followed by Minnesota and Carolina to open a five-game homestand.
Special teams were the difference Thursday. Utah went 2-for-3 on the power play while Edmonton went 0-for-2, and the shots were even at 24 apiece.
Tristan Jarry is the likely starter for his third start of the season. He had a terrible season debut against Vancouver but looked better in his last start, allowing one goal on 20 shots in a win in San Jose. Still, I just don’t trust Jarry, especially against a Utah team that can put up goals in a hurry.
For that reason, I’m staying away from the moneyline, even with the Oilers getting healthier and playing in a nice revenge spot. Instead, I’ll add another over for today. Both teams obviously have a ton of speed and talent; Edmonton’s lineup is getting stronger with three key players back, and I have no confidence whatsoever in Jarry shutting the door.
If you’ve been riding Vasily Podkolzin’s hot start to the season, keep an eye on the lines before puck drop. He’s thrived next to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and he did start the season on the top line with Hyman in the lineup, so there’s a chance he stays there. Still, it’s worth seeing where he lands now that more pieces are back.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-122, FanDuel)
