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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Thursday, October 1, Nick Griffith has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Rangers Moneyline (43¢ Polymarket)
- Blue Jackets Moneyline (-106 FanDuel)
- Oilers Team Total o3.5 (-142 FanDuel)
- Sharks Moneyline (+126 FanDuel)
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers
If you only saw the final score Tuesday, you'd assume Boston cruised past the Rangers. The game was much closer than that. It was 0-0 deep into the third period, and New York finished with a slight 24-23 edge in shots. At 5-on-5, the Rangers controlled 51.44% of the expected goals and outchanced the Bruins 14-8 in the high-danger category.
Things came apart late in the third, when Boston scored three times in a little over a minute, including once into an empty net. The Rangers did cough the puck up 20 times, so that's something to clean up, but the overall play was there for stretches of the night.
Goaltending wasn't the issue, either. Igor Shesterkin looked sharp, but with the Rangers on the front end of a back-to-back, there's a chance he doesn't start the home opener. If he does get the nod, he has a strong track record against the Lightning, going 8-4-1 with a .922 save percentage in his career against Tampa Bay.
At the other end, Andrei Vasilevskiy makes for a great goalie matchup, though his career record against New York is ordinary by his standards: 7-9-2.
Tampa Bay clearly deserves to be the favorite on paper. Nikita Kucherov is the reigning Hart Trophy winner, Vasilevskiy is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, and Anthony Cirelli was a Selke Trophy finalist for the second straight year. Even after losing Darren Raddysh to Toronto this offseason, the Lightning still have one of the best rosters in the East.
I think the matchup is a little closer than the line suggests, though. The Rangers weren't as sharp as they'd like in Boston, but they showed enough to make me comfortable backing New York at home, especially if Shesterkin is in net.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline (43¢, Polymarket)
Buffalo Sabres vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is a reshaped team compared to last week. On Monday, the Blue Jackets sent Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood and Elvis Merzlikins to Toronto for Matthew Knies, Steven Lorentz, Emil Andrae and a 2027 second-round pick. That came on top of a June trade that brought in Valeri Nichushkin from Colorado.
It hasn't all been additions this offseason, though. Columbus lost captain Boone Jenner to Washington in free agency, and Marchenko was the team's top goal scorer. Knies only arrived Wednesday, so I expect a feeling-out period. Still, head coach Rick Bowness wants big forwards who can skate and a forecheck that lives around the opposing crease, and Knies and Nichushkin fit that exactly.
Columbus is thin on the blue line. Damon Severson, coming off shoulder surgery in April, is expected to miss at least the first two games, and Ivan Provorov is day-to-day with no clear word on whether he'll play in this one. Zach Werenski is still anchoring the back end, but the Blue Jackets may lean on some depth defensemen tonight.
Including Merzlikins in Monday's trade also made it official that it's Jet Greaves' net, and he's expected to get the opener. Greaves took the starting job last season and earned it, finishing with 16.5 goals saved above expected, a .908 save percentage and a 2.60 GAA across 55 games.
Buffalo's crease is less settled. The Sabres were expected to split the net between Alex Lyon and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen this season, but Lyon is out with a shoulder injury. That stings, since he closed last season on a strong run with 14.5 goals saved above expected, a .910 save percentage and a 2.51 GAA over his last 20 games.
That leaves Luukkonen, who is expected to start despite tweaking a lower-body injury in the preseason finale. Luukkonen is a capable starter, but aggravating an injury five days ago is concerning.
The Sabres' blue line has questions, too. Olen Zellweger will miss tonight's game with a concussion, and Mattias Samuelsson is a game-time call. That's on top of an offseason in which Buffalo lost Alex Tuch to Washington in a sign-and-trade and traded Bowen Byram to Chicago.
At basically a pick'em price at home against a Sabres team that's missing pieces on the blue line and starting a goalie who's a little banged up, I'll back the Blue Jackets.
Pick: Blue Jackets Moneyline (-105, FanDuel)
Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers
What a wild season opener. The Canucks beat the Oilers 6-5 in overtime Tuesday after the two teams combined for six goals in the third period, and we get an immediate rematch tonight in Vancouver.
You never want to overreact to one game, but it looks like Edmonton is in for the same fight that's followed the team for years. Until the defense proves otherwise, the Oilers will have to outscore teams to win.
The good news is that Vancouver looked just as shaky defensively. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers controlled 70.97% of the expected goals and outchanced the Canucks 38-19.
Devon Levi is the likely starter for Edmonton in place of Tristan Jarry, who played the opener, but the Oilers haven't confirmed it yet.
Levi is an intriguing option to me this season. Buffalo once saw him as its goalie of the future after a decorated college career at Northeastern, where he became the only goaltender to win the Mike Richter Award for the country's top goalie twice, doing it in back-to-back years. He's only 24, so there's still a fair amount of upside.
I got burned badly enough on the Oilers puck line Tuesday that I'm staying away from it tonight. If Levi starts, I'd also like to see how he settles into his first start for Edmonton before putting any trust in him. But one thing looked clear: Edmonton's offense created chances almost at will against Vancouver, and I expect more of the same.
Pick: Oilers Team Total Over 3.5 (-142, FanDuel)
Florida Panthers vs San Jose Sharks
Florida looked like Florida again in its first game of the season, winning 1-0 in Carolina when Gustav Forsling scored with 4.3 seconds left in overtime. But it was a grind. The two teams combined for 84 hits and 15 penalties, and the Panthers flew out right after the game to start a three-game California trip.
Now Florida faces a 10 p.m. ET puck drop on the other side of the country against a fresh Sharks team that has been waiting all week for its home opener.
It's still unclear who will start in net for Florida. Jacob Markstrom stopped all 15 shots he faced in the opener, but Akira Schmid could make his Panthers debut tonight.
Yaroslav Askarov is expected to start for San Jose after entering the year as the No. 1 goalie. He's coming off a tough season, but he showed flashes of the high-end talent the Sharks were betting on when San Jose traded for him in 2024, four years after Nashville took him 11th overall.
He looked the part in camp, too, finishing the preseason with a .942 save percentage, including 27 saves on 29 shots against Vegas in the finale.
More than anything, this isn't the Sharks team the league was beating up on a couple of years ago. Macklin Celebrini put up 115 points last season as San Jose finished 39-35-8, a 34-point jump from the year before, and he should find himself in the Hart Trophy conversation again.
The young talent keeps coming, too. Ivar Stenberg, the No. 2 overall pick in this summer's draft, has been fast-tracked to the NHL and impressed in the preseason with three goals and five points in three games. Stenberg's defensive game should make an immediate impact, too.
Last season's weak spot was keeping the puck out of the net, as San Jose allowed the third-most goals against in the league. The Sharks worked on that this offseason, signing Jacob Trouba and trading for Darnell Nurse and Michael Kesselring. Trouba and Nurse take their share of criticism defensively, but they still give the blue line a much-needed lift over last year's group.
With the talent up front and what should be an improved defense, I'm buying the hype this season. At plus money at home, I like San Jose as another home ’dog to back tonight.
Pick: Sharks Moneyline (+126, FanDuel)
