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This is Daily Dangles, a column featuring our top expert’s NHL picks, predictions, and best bets.
Every day, one of our experts will provide you with some of the sharpest, high-value betting analysis on what the NHL schedule offers us.
For Wednesday, October 14, Nick Martin has us covered.
NHL Picks, Predictions Tonight
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- Scott Arniel to Win Jack Adams +2000 (DraftKings, Play to +1700)
- Canadiens vs Capitals Over 6.5 -115 (FanDuel, Play to -120)
Scott Arniel to Win Jack Adams (+2000)
The Frozen Frenzy has left us with a weak two-game Wednesday slate, and there are some big question marks surrounding the potential lineups of the Washington Capitals, Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche Wednesday at the time of writing.
That makes now a good opportunity to touch on one of my favorite futures currently on the board, with the price of +2000 available at most sportsbooks.
Due to the combination of finishing last season with just 82 points and Connor Hellebuyck’s messy trade request, Scott Arniel’s Winnipeg Jets entered the season as something of an afterthought. A playoff berth would make for a compelling story and likely earn Arniel plenty of credit from voters for keeping the team afloat amid the uncertainty.
While we have to be careful not to overrate a six-game sample, the Jets are 4-1-1 and could realistically be a Wildcard team out West, which may be all it takes. And perhaps more importantly, in arguing why +2000 provides value, many of the coaches with shorter odds to win appear overvalued.
Ryan Warsofsky is the betting favorite, but the Sharks' defensive core has looked as poor as expected, and I'm not sold that this is the year San Jose finally turns the corner.
Mike Babcock's Edmonton Oilers look excellent, but as we learned last year with Joel Quenneville, there may be a portion of voters unwilling to vote for him due to personal bias.
Is Paul Maurice really going to get credit for helping a Panthers superteam achieve results? The same goes for former winner Spencer Carbery, who has the Capitals' strong roster.
When you really break it down, Mike Sullivan (+1500) is the only name near the top of the board that doesn't appear overvalued to me, and he's currently my second-favorite option.
If the Jets maintain their strong start much longer, Arniel's price may plummet in short order, and now seems to be a good time to add this one to the portfolio.
Pick: Scott Arniel to Win Jack Adams +2000 (DraftKings, Play to +1700)
Canadiens vs Capitals Pick
While the Capitals' offensive depth is excellent, their back end has some meaningful question marks entering Wednesday's matchup against a speedy Canadiens side with elite scoring threats.
Matt Roy is the Capitals' best shutdown defender by a fair margin, while Rasmus Sandin has also been quite important to the blue-line when healthy in recent years. Jakob Chychrun and Cole Hutson are well adept at driving offense, but are not nearly as effective in their own zone.
Pierre-Luc Dubois is also the Capitals' best defensive forward, and his status for Wednesday's matchup is uncertain due to injury.
Washington has allowed 4.05 xGA/60 through the first six games of the season and has forced Vezina-caliber netminder Logan Thompson to handle a notably tough workload. As Thompson started Tuesday, it will be backup Charlie Lindgren getting the start in this matchup, and Lindgren is a clear downgrade.
Despite making the Eastern Conference Final last season, the Canadiens were not overly strong defensively, and have allowed 3.72 xGA/60 throughout their first six games this year. Washington has meaningful offensive upside on every line, and should be able to generate some high-quality looks in this matchup.
Pick: Over 6.5 -115 (FanDuel, Play to -120)
