The Tampa Bay Lightning (2-1-2) and Montreal Canadiens (3-1-1) meet in Game 6 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN2.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-110o / -110u). The Lightning are a -115 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are -105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lightning vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds, Pick
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 5.5 -110o / -110u | -114 |
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -260 | 5.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- Lightning vs. Canadiens Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+205), Canadiens +1.5 (-260)
- Lightning vs. Canadiens Over/Under: 5.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Lightning vs. Canadiens Moneyline: Lightning -114, Canadiens -105
Lightning vs. Canadiens Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning have their backs against the wall Friday, and at -102, it is worth backing one of this generation’s top franchises to force a Game 7. Tampa Bay is no stranger to must-win situations, especially with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.
This year's likely Vezina Trophy winner, Vasilevskiy, put together another strong season. Through 58 starts, he is 39-15-4 with a .912 save percentage and a 2.31 goals-against average.
He has had an uncharacteristically poor series, but the larger sample size suggests positive regression is likely. Vasilevskiy also plays behind one of the best two-way teams in hockey.
Montreal Canadiens
This season, the Lightning ranked in the top nine in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) and expected goal share. They were one of four teams to rank in the top nine in all three categories.
By comparison, the Canadiens trail Tampa Bay in each of those metrics. That leaves goaltending, which is yet another advantage for the Lightning.
While Jakub Dobes has slightly outperformed Vasilevskiy in this series, Vasilevskiy remains the more proven option. Dobes also faces the pressure of playing in the biggest game of his career against a veteran goaltender.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction
There are multiple reasons to back Tampa Bay in this matchup. The Lightning hold advantages in experience, offense, defense and goaltending.
The Canadiens’ main edge is home ice. However, Tampa Bay has won seven of the past 11 meetings in Montreal.
Pick: Lightning Moneyline (-102 | Play to -110)
