The Pittsburgh Penguins (33-18-15) and Colorado Avalanche (44-12-9) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EDT at Ball Arena in Denver, Colo. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-120o / -102u). The Avalanche are a -223 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +182 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Penguins vs. Avalanche predictions and NHL picks.
Penguins vs. Avalanche Odds, Pick
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | +180 |
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | -220 |
- Penguins vs. Avalanche Spread: Penguins +1.5 (-130), Avalanche -1.5 (+110)
- Penguins vs. Avalanche Over/Under: 6.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Penguins vs. Avalanche Moneyline: Penguins +180, Avalanche -220
Penguins vs. Avalanche Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins grinded out a win over Utah on Saturday. It was far from pretty, but there are no pictures on the scoresheet, and deep down, I think Pittsburgh fans love winning that way.
That said, it was the fourth straight game the Penguins found themselves staring at a multi-goal deficit, which is hard to ignore, even though it has battled back for at least a point in three of those. Utah plays fast, and Pittsburgh looked uncomfortable early against that speed.
The previous six games in particular have been sloppy, especially against Vegas last Thursday. Pittsburgh has allowed 25 goals during that stretch, including four or more in four of those games.
Uncharacteristically, it has also given up the ninth-most high-danger shots over the last 10 games. Turnovers, lost puck battles, and odd-man rushes have been far too common, all issues that will need to be cleaned up against a dangerous Colorado team tonight.
Most of the recent struggles trace back to lineup absences with Sidney Crosby, Justin Brazeau, and Samuel Girard injured, and Evgeni Malkin serving a five-game suspension. Without Crosby, the Penguins are treading water at 4-3-3. Without both Crosby and Malkin, they have won just two of five.
Crosby’s absence has been especially noticeable in the faceoff circle, where Pittsburgh ranks dead last by a wide margin at 40.14% since the Olympic break. Over that same stretch, it also ranks 27th in goals-for above expected at 5-on-5.
The good news is Crosby and Brazeau were at morning skate before the Utah game, so there is at least some optimism on the health front. Additionally, Malkin is set to return tonight as Pittsburgh navigates a tight playoff race.
The Penguins are tied with the Islanders for second in the Metro and hold a two-point lead over Columbus, which is sitting just outside the playoff bubble. Seven teams are within five points of each other in the Wild Card picture.
Even with the recent dip, Pittsburgh has been good enough this season to buy some grace. It still ranks in the top 10 in expected goal share and goals scored, while allowing the seventh fewest goals against.
One thing that always stands out to me with Pittsburgh is the fourth line of Connor Dewar, Blake Lizotte, and Noel Acciari. The group has been extremely reliable all year and deserves more credit than it gets. Head coach Dan Muse leans on them quite a bit, and they pretty much stole a win in Utah their last time out.
On the goalie front, Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs have split starts evenly, and by the numbers, they're fairly interchangeable, posting save percentages of .891 and .894, respectively. Skinner does have an 8.7 GSAx to Silovs’ -4.5 GSAx.
With Skinner getting the nod against Utah, I would expect Silovs to draw the start tonight.
Colorado Avalanche
The Stars are closing in on the Avalanche for the top spot in the West, just three points back after rattling off a 14-0-1 run over their last 15 games.
Colorado, meanwhile, has lost two of its last three following a five-game winning streak. If you’re looking for an explanation for Saturday’s loss to Winnipeg, the team spent eight hours on the tarmac due to a delayed flight from Seattle and didn’t arrive until late the night before its afternoon game.
After tonight, the Avalanche will face Dallas at home on Wednesday in a must-watch matchup. First, though, it’ll need to get past Pittsburgh and avoid a dreaded lookahead spot.
Like Pittsburgh, Colorado is dealing with injuries of its own. Both Artturi Lehkonen and Gabriel Landeskog are considered week-to-week and will miss this game.
In the meantime, newly reacquired Nazem Kadri has shifted to the top-line wing alongside Nathan MacKinnon, stepping outside his usual center role.
Colorado lost just two of its first 40 games in regulation, but hit some injury issues in early January when Landeskog went down for the first time. Without Landeskog, the Avs have been far from dominant, going 8-8-2 with a modest +4 goal differential. Many of the Avalanche’s remarkable season numbers take a noticeable hit when he’s out.
The team currently ranks first in both goals scored and goals allowed, averaging 3.8 goals for and 2.4 goals against per game. Without Landeskog, those numbers drop to 3.2 goals scored and 3 allowed per game. For context, if paced over the 65 games it’s played, that would translate to 16th in scoring and 10th in goals allowed.
Regardless, check almost any 5-on-5 stat and Colorado is likely leading or, at worst, sitting in the top five, even if some of those numbers were inflated early in the season and have leveled off in recent months. The power play, though, is still a head-scratcher. Once dead last, it’s now 29th. An inconsequential jump, but I suppose headed in the right direction.
In net, Mackenzie Blackwood started against Winnipeg, so Scott Wedgewood is expected to return tonight, though nothing has been officially announced as of this writing. Wedgewood is 25-4-5 this season with a .918 save percentage and a 14.6 GSAx, a mark that's good for ninth in the NHL.
Penguins vs. Avalanche Prediction
Malkin’s return tonight also means the return of the Malkin-Novak-Chinakhov line. It looked like Pittsburgh had really found something with that combination before Malkin’s suspension.
The trio has been extremely productive when together, ranking third in xGF/60 among lines with at least 100 minutes logged.
Even without Malkin, Novak has recorded a point in three of his last five games and in just over half of his last 30 this season. At +165, the implied probability sits at 37.74%, which feels a bit undervalued.
Despite a tough matchup against Colorado, I like this group to pick up right where it left off and for Novak to get on the scoresheet tonight.
Pick: Tommy Novak 1+ Points
