The Carolina Hurricanes (41-18-6) and Tampa Bay Lightning (40-20-4) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by 1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+100o / -120u). The Lightning are a -135 favorite to win outright, while the Hurricanes are +115 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Hurricanes vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Hurricanes Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 6.5 100o / -120u | +115 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 6.5 100o / -120u | -135 |
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning Spread: Hurricanes +1.5 (-220), Lightning -1.5 (+180)
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning Over/Under: 6.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning Moneyline: Hurricanes +115, Lightning -135
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Hurricanes vs. Lightning Preview
Carolina Hurricanes
This one is set to be a big matchup in the standings. Even with its recent struggles, Tampa Bay is just four points back of Carolina with a game in hand.
Carolina sits atop the Eastern Conference, two points ahead of Buffalo, with a game in hand of its own over the Sabres. The Hurricanes have won eight of their last 11 games, though it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster.
They dropped a couple of ugly games to Calgary and St. Louis, and almost let one slip against Pittsburgh, blowing a two-goal lead in the final three minutes before surviving in a shootout.
All things considered, this is still an elite team on both ends of the ice, ranking second in xGF/60 and fourth in xGA/60 this season.
A big reason for that is the consistency up front. The top six has largely stayed intact, and you can’t argue with coach Rod Brind'Amour’s decision to not make many adjustments.
Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho, and Andrei Svechnikov have logged 438 minutes together, fourth most of any trio, while Taylor Hall, Logan Stankoven, and Jackson Blake sit seventh in that category. Both lines rank inside the top ten in goals scored.
The main concern currently is goaltending. Brandon Bussi has been the better option by a clear margin this season, posting a 6.2 GSAx and .898 SV% compared to a -7.8 GSAx and .872 SV% for Frederik Andersen.
That said, Bussi has hit a rough patch recently, allowing 15 goals over his last four starts. Purely speculation, but the two have alternated starts over the last six games, and with Bussi getting the nod against St. Louis on Thursday, Andersen looks like the more likely starter tonight.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay finally pieced together a solid full-game effort against Detroit on Thursday, controlling much of the game, particularly the first half of the opening period, which has been an issue lately.
It was a welcome sight after losing six of its last seven, while getting outscored 35–22 in what was an ugly stretch by any measure.
What made matters worse was the pattern of bad starts. The Lightning were chasing games constantly, down 3–0 to Carolina, 5–0 to Buffalo, 2–0 to Minnesota, 2–0 to Winnipeg, and 3–0 in a rematch against Buffalo. That's about as uncharacteristic as it gets for a team that carried an eight-point lead in the Atlantic Division into the break.
That lead has since disappeared, with Tampa now sitting behind Buffalo. Nonetheless, Thursday's 4-1 win was a good sign, even if it comes with some context. Detroit is dealing with its own struggles, and Tampa's only other wins since the break both came against a Toronto team that was in the midst of an eight-game losing streak.
Special teams have been especially worrisome, which is something they've always excelled at. Tampa has killed just 67.7% of penalties since the break, while the power play has been a middling 20.8%.
The silver lining is that the offense hasn't completely abandoned them, averaging 3.6 GF/60 over its last 10 games.
Defensively, the problems are hard to ignore. The Lightning have surrendered the third-most GA/60 (3.4) over its last 10 games and the third-most shots on goal per game (31.5).
Andrei Vasilevskiy has posted a -3.0 GSAx, .891 SV%, and 3.18 GAA in that span, though it's hard to put too much of this on him when you see the quality of chances he’s faced. He hasn't been his usual self by any stretch, but also isn’t getting much help.
Regardless, there’s no reason he shouldn’t get the start again tonight.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Prediction
With both teams looking to get back on track and plenty at stake in the standings, I anticipate a lot of energy from the jump.
Tampa's defensive issues are hard to fully dismiss after giving up 38 goals in nine games since the break. Thursday's game was encouraging, but one win over a struggling Detroit team isn't enough to declare the corner turned.
Plus-money on Carolina feels like the smarter option here.
The Hurricanes have a short memory when it comes to bad losses. They were blanked 3–0 by St. Louis earlier this season and responded with a 9–1 demolition of Florida.
After another ugly loss to the Blues on Thursday, I expect a good response tonight.
Pick: Hurricanes Moneyline (+115)
