Trump’s Impeachment Odds: Helsinki Misstep Moving the Betting Market

Jul 21, 2018 10:00 AM EDT
  • Donald Trump's chances to win re-election in 2020 moved from 48.8% (+105 odds) to 40.8% (+145 odds) following his comments at the Helsinki Summit.
  • Bovada now lists Trump's chances to be impeached by the end of his first term at 66.7% (-200 odds). His odds on resigning are 33.3% (+200).
  • Paddy Power and PredictIt have far less aggressive odds, both putting Trump's impeachment chances at around 33.3% (+200 odds).

Unless you’ve instituted a personal media blackout, you’ve probably heard that President Trump caused an uproar during his visit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki this week.

Bookmakers, of course, pounced on the opportunity to offer their take.


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Since Monday, Trump’s chances of winning re-election in 2020 have slipped from 48.8% (+105 odds) to 40.8% (+145 odds) at 5Dimes following the Helsinki debacle. The Field now has a 64.9% chance to win in 2020 (-185 odds, after being -145 pre-Helsinki).

And in the past 24 hours, Bovada has added a trio of new prop bets to their political wagering tab:

  • Will Trump be convicted by the Senate in his first term? Yes is 18.2% (+450 odds)
  • Will Trump resign from the presidency in his first term? Yes is 33.3% (+200 odds)
  • Will Trump be impeached by the House in his first term? Yes is 66.7% (-200 odds)

A few things worth noting: This is the first time these props have appeared in months. And most importantly, Bovada lists numbers on only one side, meaning there is no second option for betting on Trump to not be impeached. So these odds deserve a little skepticism.

As a point of comparison, the European sportsbook Paddy Power gives Trump a 33.3% chance to be impeached (+200 odds). That’s up from 20% (+400 odds) pre-Helsinki.

At PredictIt, a predictions marketplace that posts a plethora of political props, Trump’s odds of being impeached by the end of his first term are 38%, closer to Paddy Power’s figures than Bovada’s.

Credit:

Shelley Mays/The Tennessean via USA TODAY NETWORK. Pictured: President Donald Trump

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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