Premier League Relegation Odds Update: Norwich City Overwhelming Favorite To Go Down
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- If you like testing the waters, Norwich is just -110 to finish dead last after a terrible start to the season.
- They're -450 to be relegated outright. The team at the bottom of the table after Matchday 8 has gone on to be relegated in six of the last seven seasons.
- Brentford is almost assured to stay up despite being among the preseason favorites to go down. No team has ever been relegated after being up nine points after Matchday 8.
2022 Premier League Relegation Odds
|Brighton Hove & Albion||+2500|
|West Ham United||+4000|
With the conclusion of Matchday 8, let’s take a look at how the relegation battle is shaping up.
The team at the bottom of the table after Matchday 8 has gone on to be relegated in six of the last seven seasons.
The only team to break that mold was Crystal Palace in 2017-18. They fired their coach Frank de Boer after just four Premier League games and appointed former England manager Roy Hodgson in his place.
The East London side went on to have a solid second half of the season — culminating in an unbeaten April and May — that left them in 11th place and a whopping 11 points clear of the relegation zone.
But, still, that historical precedent is not good news for Norwich City, which have not put up a win through eight games and have only scored a league-low of two goals. By the way, each of those goals have come in losses. They’ve netted their two points in 0-0 draws to Burnley and Brighton Hove & Albion.
Norwich are currently -110 to finish in last place at DraftKings. Burnley and Newcastle United sit in the relegation zone just above the Canaries with three points each.
In each of the last three seasons, two of the three teams in the relegation zone after Matchday 8 have gone on to be relegated. Last season, it was Sheffield United at the bottom of the table and West Bromwich Albion at 18th that ended up going down.
In the 2019-20 season, Watford and Norwich were victims of this paradigm. In 2018-19, it was Huddersfield and Cardiff that were doomed by October.
That’s not good news for either team.
Burnley, which was the 18th-place the team, had the most bets on them to be relegated before the season started, according to BetMGM. Their odds have dropped since then from +220 to -160.
And you can still nab Newcastle to be relegated at +190 at DraftKings. That might be more on the account of their recent buyout from a Saudi Arabian group than anything else.
Meanwhile, Norwich are now a ridiculous -450 to be relegated as of Monday afternoon. They had entered the season as -110 favorites to be relegated but have seen their odds shorten from that mark every week since.
The preseason favorite to be relegated based on total money percentage was Brentford, which have pulled off wins against Premier League stalwarts Arsenal, West Ham and Wolves.
Brentford have been feisty. Besides that, they’ve been competitive in games against titanic teams like Liverpool and Chelsea. They drew Liverpool 3-3 and lost in a closely contested matchup against Chelsea in which they led on shots on target seven-to-one.
Their odds to be relegated are now +1000 — that’s not happening. Don’t bet on that. Brentford are currently nine points clear of the relegation zone.
Zero teams in the Premier League era have been relegated nine points out of the relegation zone after Matchday 8. It makes sense that their odds to stay up are currently from -2000 to -5000 at British sportsbooks.
If you really like vig … that’s a lock. But, I mean, don’t tie up your money like that for seven more months.
Another preseason favorite to be relegated was Crystal Palace. They had the fourth-most money on them to go down before the season began. The Eagles, too, have seen their odds to be kicked out of the Premier League drop on account of their admirable start to the season.
The East Londoners have put up impressive showings throughout the season and have gone unbeaten in six games, with their two losses coming to Liverpool and Chelsea.
The only team in the last five seasons to be relegated after they were five points clear of the relegation zone at this point in the season was Norwich City in the 2015-16 season. Bournemouth in 2019-20 and West Brom in 2017-18 were relegated despite being up four points on the relegation zone after Matchday 8.
Another preseason favorite in the betting markets to be relegated were Wolverhampton Wanderers. They had the fifth-most money on them to go down. They’re nine points clear of the relegation zone after a three-game winning streak dating back to mid-September. This is a solid squad.
Wolves’ odds to stay up also vacillate from -2000 to -10000 in British markets.
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