Chelsea (4-2-1) and Paris Saint-Germain (4-2-1) will face off today at 4:00 p.m. EDT at Parc des Princes in Paris, France.
PSG is favored at a -110 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-167o / +135u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. PSG prediction.
Chelsea vs. PSG Prediction
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
My Chelsea vs. PSG best bet centers on the goal total, with signs that point toward a contest that features at least three goals.
Chelsea vs. PSG Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 2.5 -167o / +135u | +270 |
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -118 | 2.5 -167o / +135u | -110 |
Chelsea vs. PSG Picks, Parlay
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
PSG enters this match as the reigning champion of Europe, and the team possesses a formidable attack. However, signs of defensive frailty have appeared recently, especially in Champions League play. This makes a wager on the total an attractive option.
There have been three or more goals in nine of PSG’s 11 Champions League matches this season. Those games have seen an average of 4.09 goals. Luis Enrique’s squad has managed just two shutouts during that run, so Chelsea should have opportunities to contribute to the scoreline despite its underdog status.
On the other side, new manager Liam Rosenior has seen his Chelsea matches produce an average of 3.67 goals. The team’s defensive issues were on full display over the weekend against Wrexham in the FA Cup, a match in which Chelsea looked vulnerable. If a club from a lower division can expose those weaknesses, it is highly probable that PSG's world-class attack will create significant problems.
Furthermore, the Over 2.5 goals bet has been successful in all four of Chelsea’s away matches in the Champions League this season, which underscores a clear trend for the Blues on the road in this competition.
Chelsea vs. PSG Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 21.1% | 20.9% | 58.1% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | 3.18 | 2.03 |
Chelsea vs. PSG Betting Analysis
This match serves as a chance for PSG to get revenge for the 3-0 defeat it suffered against Chelsea in last summer's Club World Cup final. We can expect Luis Enrique’s side to control possession, much like it did in that loss, where it held the ball 66% of the time. The key difference this time must be efficiency; PSG generated just 0.53 expected goals (xG) in that final, a number it must improve upon.
While PSG has been shaky at home in this competition, with just two wins in five matches at the Parc des Princes, Chelsea has its own struggles away from home. The Blues have recorded only one road win in the Champions League this season.
Chelsea will likely adopt a counterattack strategy, a tactic that has brought recent success. With an in-form Joao Pedro to lead the line, the visitors will pose a credible threat on the break.
The history between these two clubs also supports the idea of an open match. The last five encounters have produced an average of 3.2 goals, and four of those five games saw both teams score. This historical data, combined with current team form, strengthens the case for a PSG vs. Chelsea pick on the over.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your PSG vs Chelsea picks.
