Champions League AC Milan vs. Dinamo Zagreb Odds: A Same-Game Parlay to Bet on Wednesday Afternoon
Nderim Kaceli/LiveMedia/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Rafael Leao of Ac Milan.
- A.C. Milan is favored to beat Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League.
- Is there value in backing the home side?
- Nick Hennion offers his analysis and best bet.
Milan vs. Dinamo Zagreb Odds
|Dinamo Zagreb Odds||+1100|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-165 / +120)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 12:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Still seeking its first win of the Champions League, AC Milan welcomes Croatian representatives Dinamo Zagreb to the San Siro for their second fixture.
Zagreb enters this match fresh off an upset of Premier League side Chelsea in their opening fixture while Milan departed Austria with a single point following a draw with RB Salzburg.
These two clubs haven't featured in a head-to-head since 2000, with Milan capturing both of those affairs.
A change of venue will be welcomed from AC Milan. Despite earning a point against Salzburg, they were thoroughly outplayed.
The Rossoneri lost the match on expected goals (xG) 1.32-0.88 and simultaneously lost the big scoring chances battle 2-0 in Austria, per fotmob.com. Additionally, Milan managed only 22 penalty area touches against Salzburg, which is tied for their second-lowest output of the season in all competitions.
The good news for Milan? They have excelled at home this season in Serie A. Through three home fixtures at the San Siro, manager Stefano Pioli's side has scored nine goals on nine big scoring chances and owns a +5 big scoring chances differential in those three matches.
It was the Zagreb defense which led the way in their victory over Chelsea.
The Croatian outfit limited Chelsea's attack to only 0.93 xG and zero big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. However, this was simultaneously a side that allowed 46 penalty area touches to the Blues, which qualified as the second-most in the entire Champions League.
Offensively, Zagreb looked completely lifeless. They managed only 11 penalty area touches — the fifth-fewest in matchweek 1 — and generated only 0.62 xG and one big scoring chance on six shots.
Lastly, just across their last three Champions League matches (qualification included), Zagreb has posted a +0 big scoring chances differential despite owning a +3 goal differential in those matches.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I lean towards Milan on the spread, but I have no interest in paying -145 to lay a goal-and-a-half. If you're interested in betting the hosts, I would look to some alternate numbers like -2 to limit juice.
Where I do see slight value is with a single-game parlay. It's my belief that Milan do win this match given their stellar home record in Serie A along with my expectation Zagreb will do nothing offensively to challenge the hosts.
At the same time, I expect the Zagreb defense will do its part not to get blown out. I don't believe Milan are built to run rampant against a back-five and think we'll see that on Wednesday.
For those reasons, I'll use the Milan moneyline and Under 3.5 Goals as the two legs of my single-game parlay. Those two legs come out to +100 at BetMGM and I would personally play it up to -120.
The Pick: Single-Game Parlay: AC Milan Moneyline & Total Under 3.5 Goals (+100)