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Ajax-Juventus Betting Odds: Value on the Over/Under in Champions League Quarterfinals?

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Getty Images. Pictured: Paulo Dybala.

  • Ajax host Juventus in the opening leg of their Champions League quarterfinal matchup on Wednesday (3 p.m. ET on Galavision).
  • Cristiano Ronaldo will return from injury for Juventus, but odds have been shifting toward Ajax to pull off the upset.

Ajax and Juventus both overcame first-leg deficits in the Champions League Round of 16 to advance to the quarterfinal.

Juve progressed past Atletico Madrid, 3-2 on aggregate, after losing the opening leg 2-0. Meanwhile, Ajax throttled Real Madrid in their return leg, 4-1, to avenge a 2-1 home loss in the opener.

This is Ajax’s first appearance in the Champions League quarterfinal in 16 years. Juventus have reached this stage for the third straight season and made it to the final in 2017 and 2015.

Ajax-Juventus Betting Odds

Juventus opened as +105 favorites and have since drifted out to +130. Ajax’s odds have shortened from +300 to +240, but the draw has become less likely (+230 to +245).

Juventus are currently listed at -400 to advance to the semifinal, while Ajax are available at +325 to spring the upset over two legs.

Injuries and Suspension News

Ajax:  M Carel Eiting (out), D Noussair Mazraoui (out)

Misses Second Leg if Booked: Blind, De Ligt, Tagliafico, Van de Beek

Juventus: F Cristiano Ronaldo (probable), D Andrea Barzagli (questionable), M Douglas Costa (questionable) D Giorgio Chiellini (out), M Juan Cuadrado (out), M Emre Can (out)

Misses Second Leg if Booked: Matuidi, Bernardeschi

Betting Market Breakdown

Juventus opened at +105 more than three weeks ago and it’s been a slow and steady shift into the +130 range.

Some sportsbooks are even listing Juve as high as +135/+140 despite attracting more than 70% of bets around the market.

The away side will fortunately be aided by the return of Cristiano Ronaldo (thigh), but that hasn’t affected the betting odds yet.

We have seen adjustments on the over/under, though, with a clear shift toward the over (2.5).

Ajax have been impressive in all competitions this season and present a ton of headaches for opposing defenses. They’ve scored 100 league goals and 29 in the Champions League, though Juventus may be their toughest test to date.

Even so, the home side should look to get on the front foot and put early pressure on Juve. I’ll be looking for both clubs to score and will follow the bit of sharp money on the over.

Value Play

  • Over 2.5 (+100)

Champions League Title Odds

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