Arsenal vs Brighton Odds, Pick: Title Hopes Set to Be Fully Dashed For Gunners
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Martin Odegaard.
Arsenal vs Brighton Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+130 / -160)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-190 / +160)|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Title challengers Arsenal will host Brighton & Hove Albion at the Emirates Stadium to close out the Premier League’s Sunday slate.
Both teams have tons to play for in the season’s final weeks. Many are familiar with Arsenal’s situation. They are one point behind league leaders Man City with three games left (City have a game in hand) for a chance to win their first EPL crown in nearly 20 years.
The Seagulls on the other hand are still European contenders. They currently sit seventh in the table with 55 points, just two points back from Tottenham (57) and seven points back from Liverpool (62), with two games in hand on both.
Here is our breakdown of the Arsenal vs Brighton odds, and my pick for the Premier League match on Sunday.
Arsenal Can Still Win The Title
Man City are currently the heavy favorites to win their fifth Premier League title in the last six years at -1400, while Arsenal sit at +800. Despite the lack of confidence the oddsmakers have in the Gunners to regain the league lead, they arguably have an easier schedule than the Cityzens and do not have to worry about rotating unlike City, who are hunting for their first Champions League triumph.
Arsenal overcame the hurdle of Newcastle United last weekend with a tactical — or time-wasting performance if you agree with Newcastle manager Eddie Howe — 2-0 win at St. James Park. They now have what will likely be their biggest test left up against an explosive Brighton team.
They can match that explosiveness, though. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side are in a 17-game scoring streak and have netted 14 goals in their last four games inside the Emirates. Their goal-scoring is coming from everyone this season, as they have five players with double-digit goal contributions; Bukayo Saka is leading the team with 24.
However, despite their offensive firepower, their defense has been bitten by a late-season injury bug. William Saliba and Oleksandr Zinchenko have recently both suffered injuries that will cause them to miss the remainder of the season, forcing Arteta to rotate a defense that has already given up 11.6 xG in their last six matches.
Brighton Play Up to Their Competition
Brighton have been excellent this season. They have already clinched a top-half of the table finish and will likely earn their highest finish in the first division. Their current highest finish occurred just last year when they placed ninth under former manager Graham Potter.
However, they have been known to play down – or up – to their competition. The Seagulls have 10 losses this season. Six of them have come from a team behind them in the league table, including their previous two losses against Nottingham and Everton, who are both threatening relegation.
But when the manager Roberto De Zerbi’s men play against a European contender, they transform in the historical side they have been this season. They have a +2 goal differential against teams in the top six in all competitions this season.
The Seagulls can score against the best, home or away. Brighton have scored in 11 consecutive away games, and of the 63 goals this season (fifth-highest in the EPL), 30 of them have been scored on the road. Brighton see a significant drop off defensively away from home, though. They allow 1.12 goals per 90 at home compared to 2.0 goals on the road.
Arsenal vs Brighton Pick
Both of these teams know how to score and have been showing defensive mishaps lately. That alone makes you think that the over is the play, but it has been bumped up from 2.5 to 3.5, losing its value.
That said, there is value elsewhere. The Saliba and Zinchenko injuries will not only impact the defense for Arsenal, but both those players are huge in the attack regarding build-up play and line-breaking passes.
And Brighton’s embarrassment against Everton shouldn’t overshadow how well they have played this season, especially against top sides. They have already beaten the Gunners once this season, 3-1 in the Carabao Cup.
I certainly fear the Seagulls could lay another egg, but De Zerbi’s side have just as much to play for at this point in the season as Arsenal. Back Brighton on the spread.
Pick: Brighton +0.5 (+110)
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