Aston Villa vs Leeds United Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Aston Villa look to rebound from an FA Cup shock when they host a Leeds United side that have become a tricky opponent in recent weeks.

Villa were dumped out of the FA Cup at home by fourth-tier Stevenage on a match that turned dramatically on Leander Dondecker's 85th-minute red card, a match-leveling penalty that followed and Dean Campbell's 90th-minute winner. The defeat is only the third since manager Unai Emery took over shortly before the World Cup break.

Leeds also weren't at their best in the cup against a lower-division opponent, but at least the Peacocks forced a replay following a 2-2 draw at Cardiff City. Manager Jesse Marsch's side is winless in its last six overall, though they earned draws in their last two league fixtures and have faced a tough run of fixtures.

These teams last met in October at Elland Road, when then-manager Steven Gerrard saw his Villa side fail to capitalize on the lion's share of chances in a 0-0 draw.

Aston Villa Expecting Stronger Outing With Stronger Lineup

If there's any silver lining to the Stevenage loss, it's that it came with a somewhat rotated squad and altered system.

None of Villa's five leaders in Premier League minutes started (Ollie Watkins was the only one to play). And the 4-3-3 shape marked the first time since Emery's takeover he hasn't opted to play some sort of two-striker setup.

It was still an inexplicable result given the gulf in class, and it included some patterns that have recurred throughout the season. The most obvious may have been Philippe Coutinho's continuing struggles. His goalless season continued despite five shots and a first start since October 10th.

What Emery has continued to do is get more consistent attacking results than Gerrard did. Even if you'd expect more than one goal against Stevenage, the cup tie made it seven games out of seven in all competitions with a goal scored. Gerrard's Villa were held scoreless on six occasions — all in league play — before his dismissal.

Captain John McGinn remains out with a hamstring strain and Dondecker will be serving a red card suspension. Fullback Matty Cash also may have picked up an injury against Stevenage.

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Leeds United Facing Familiar Issues

Marsch's men had their own blushes spared only by a dramatic fightback after halftime. Rodrigo headed in a 65th-minute corner to cut the deficit to 2-1 and Sonny Perkins poked home the leveler in the third minute of second-half stoppage time.

The match marked the ninth out of 10 away games in all competitions in which Leeds have conceded, and it was the fifth time in all competitions that they've managed a draw or better from a losing position.

But it was also a return to consistent defending woes that have plagued Marsch's side all season. Those same struggles were the major reason for the departure of Marsch's predecessor Marcelo Bielsa.

On the other end, striker Patrick Bamford has returned to training. If he could regain vintage form, he could give his side a welcome added threat up front to take some of the stress off Rodrigo, who has 10 goals this campaign.

That total is the 31-year old Spaniard's most anywhere since he scored 16 for Valencia in the 2017-2018 La Liga campaign. Bamford is now two years removed from his 17-goal campaign in Leeds' first season since Premier League promotion.

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Aston Villa vs. Leeds United Pick

Villa and Leeds are significantly different from a tactical perspective, but one similarity they have is that their games either tend to stay very tight or explode into rather free flowing encounters.

In a game without a lot of obvious angles, you can leverage it by selling a goal and playing a high total above 3.5 goals at +205 odds and an implied 32.8% probability.

If anything, Emery's teams appear to be more susceptible to that trend than Gerrard's.

Overall, these teams have seen four or more goals scored on 12-of-35 occasions in league fixtures. It's 9-of-23 when considering only games Marsch or Emery have managed, and it's 5-of-12 when considering only games Marsch has managed away or Emery has managed at home.

Pick: Over 3.5 (+205)