Aston Villa vs. Chelsea Odds & Pick
| Aston Villa odds | +540 [BET NOW] |
| Chelsea odds | -215 [BET NOW] |
| Draw odds | +370 [BET NOW] |
| Over/under | 3 (-109/-113) [BET NOW] |
| Time | Sunday, 11:15 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds as of Saturday at 3 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Sunday morning's matchup features two teams at opposite ends of the table. Aston Villa are in a relegation battle and desperately need points anywhere they can get them to avoid falling down into the Championship. Chelsea, on the other hand, sit in the fourth and final Champions League spot and are looking for three points to widen their gap from the rest of the pack.
Aston Villa
Coming off a 0-0 draw against Sheffield United on Wednesday, Aston Villa will look to build on their solid defensive performance. It's been bleak for the Lions defensively this year, as they've conceded the most expected goals (2.12) per game in the Premier League.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Their poor defensive record gets even worse when they face the top half of the table. In fifteen matches against the top of the table, the Lions have managed only six points. Their expected goals numbers from those matches also show they've been completely dominated.
I think playing against a team with as much firepower as Chelsea will be too much for them to keep this game close.
Chelsea
It's been a good year for Chelsea given the fact that it's also been a transition year. With Chelsea's young talent finally starting to blossom, Frank Lampard has put an emphasis on giving that talent plenty of opportunities.
The break has allowed Chelsea to get healthy, as American wonderkid Christian Pulisic is ready to return from injury. The Blues have a lot of firepower going forward, scoring 1.92 xG per game. Their attack is led by young starlet Tammy Abraham, who has bagged 13 goals and scores 0.61 xG per 90 minutes.
The Blues were struggling on the road before the break, going winless in their last four matches. Outside of those four matches, though, Chelsea has been good on the road this season, earning 21 of a possible 30 points. I expect the Blues to have no trouble creating numerous chances against Aston Villa's poor defense.
Projections, Betting Pick
Chelsea opened at -182 on DraftKings and has since risen up to -210. Based on my model, I still think the line is too short for Chelsea.
- Aston Villa projected odds: +650 (13.34% win probability)
- Chelsea projected odds: -246 (71.07% win probability)
- Draw projected odds: +541 (15.59% win probability)
- Aston Villa projected xG: 1.03
- Chelsea projected xG: 2.63
I expect this the be a wide open, free-flowing game with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities for both teams. I think Chelsea can easily turn this game into a blowout so I am going to take the Blues -1 and the over of 3 goals.
