Chelsea and Bayern Munich will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany, on Matchday 1 of this season's UEFA Champions League.
Bayern is favored at a -155 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+125o / -175u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Bayern prediction.
Chelsea vs. Bayern Prediction
Pick: Bayern To Win
My Chelsea vs. Bayern best bet is on Bayern to win this UCL match.
Chelsea vs. Bayern Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +115 | 3.5 125o / -175u | +333 |
| Bayern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -165 | 3.5 125o / -175u | -155 |
Chelsea vs. Bayern Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Bayern To Win (-154)
Leg 2: Bayern Munich -0.25 First Half Asian Handicap (-128)
Leg 3: Bayern -1.25 Asian Handicap (+130)
Chelsea looked vulnerable in their 2-2 draw against Brentford at the weekend. They face one of Europe’s most dangerous attacks here, so we are backing the home side to emerge victorious as part of our Bayern vs Chelsea predictions.
Vincent Kompany’s side continued their sublime start to the season by beating HSV 5-0 on Saturday. The Bavarians’ attack, led by Harry Kane, has 19 goals in five competitive matches so far this season, and 11 of those goals were scored across their two games at the Allianz Arena.
The underlying data also suggests the visitors are in danger. Bayern have won the xG battle in all five of their competitive matches so far this season, with an average expected goals of 2.93, two more than their opponents. Chelsea, on the other hand, had fewer expected goals against Brentford at the weekend.
For the first half handicap, we're leaning into Bayern's strengths at home. Vincent Kompany’s side have played two Bundesliga games at Allianz Arena so far this season. The Bavarians went into the half-time break winning in both matches, scoring seven goals in the combined 90 minutes. Chelsea have conceded first in two of their four Premier League games this season.
Bayern Munich boasts an impressive home record in the UEFA Champions League, remaining unbeaten in 34 home group stage matches. This record extends to losing a single one of their last 11 home games against English sides. Their only loss was against Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool in 2019.
The hosts have adopted a high-pressing, quick-start playing style. Their approach often sees Bayern taking the lead early and pushing the opposition onto the back foot.
Chelsea has struggled at the start of this season against teams with a similar approach. While the Blues don’t lack offensive power, their defense is unlikely to withstand the constant pressure at the Allianz Arena.
Chelsea vs. Bayern Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Bayern |
|---|---|---|
| 28.5% | 20.1% | 51.4% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Bayern |
|---|---|---|
| 1.32 | 3.18 | 1.86 |
Chelsea vs. Bayern Betting Analysis
Bayern Munich and Chelsea renew their rivalry in a Champions League showdown, recalling the dramatic 2012 final where Chelsea won on penalties. Their most recent encounter saw Bayern dominate with a 7-1 aggregate victory in the 2019/20 round of 16.
The Bavarians have a strong record against English sides at home, winning eight of their last ten UEFA matches (D1, L1) and remaining unbeaten in 34 home group stage games (W32, D2) since a 2013 loss to Manchester City.
Consistently strong starters, Bayern have won their opening match in 21 consecutive Champions League campaigns.
Luis Diaz has hit the ground running, linking up well with Michael Olise and Harry Kane. Chelsea will need to mark Bayern’s mercurial wide men closely if they are to stop them from wreaking havoc.
Enzo Maresca’s team also needs to be alert when they have the ball. Bayern allows 8.99 passes per defensive action, the fewest in the Bundesliga, meaning they’re adept at pressing high and forcing mistakes when the opposition plays out.
Although Chelsea will find themselves under pressure for long periods, they do have the quality to hurt the home side. Cole Palmer returned to the team and scored in the 2-2 vs Brentford. His creativity will also enable the Blues’ quick wide men to receive the ball in dangerous areas, so expect the visitors to have chances on the counter.
Chelsea vs. Bayern Projected Starting Lineups
Chelsea
Sanchez; James, Chalobah, Adarabioyo, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez, Palmer; Estevao, Neto, Pedro.
Bayern
Neuer; Lamier, Upamecano, Tah, Stanisic; Kimmich, Goretzka, Gnabry; Olise, Diaz, Kane.
