Juventus (2-1-3) hosts Benfica (2-4-0) at Allianz Stadium in Turin, Italy, for a pivotal Champions League match on Wednesday, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. ET.
While the home side aims to secure its place in the next stage, the visitors arrive with recent history on their side and a desperate need for points, which sets up a high-stakes encounter.
Juventus is favored at a -125 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-111o / -111u) goals.
Let's get into my Benfica vs. Juventus prediction.
Benfica vs. Juventus Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-125)
My Benfica vs. Juventus best bet is for both teams to score. Given Benfica's urgent need for a victory and Juventus's notable defensive vulnerabilities in European play, goals from both sides represent the most logical outcome.
Benfica vs. Juventus Odds
| Benfica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -105 | 2.5 -111o / -111u | +350 |
| Juventus Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -135 | 2.5 -111o / -111u | -125 |
Benfica vs. Juventus Pick
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-125, bet365)
The case for both teams to find the back of the net is compelling. Juventus has struggled to maintain defensive solidity in the Champions League this season, with just a single clean sheet across six European fixtures.
Even in a 2-0 victory over a less-talented Pafos side, the Italian club still allowed 1.0 expected goals (xG), a sign of underlying defensive issues. Overall, the team sits near the bottom of the competition in defensive metrics, with an average of 1.7 goals conceded per game.
Benfica's situation in the standings necessitates an aggressive, forward-thinking game plan. A draw offers little benefit, so they will have to push for a win. Jose Mourinho’s squad has already shown it can break down quality Italian defenses.
In a recent match against Napoli, a team with a defensive profile similar to Juventus, Benfica scored twice and created 2.1 xG. This offensive performance suggests they have the firepower to challenge Juventus, even on the road.
The hosts have already shown they can be breached by Portuguese opposition, as seen in their recent 1-1 draw with Sporting. Juventus’s defensive strength in its domestic league has not carried over to the Champions League, which makes the BTTS a solid pick.
Benfica vs. Juventus Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Benfica | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 21.8% | 24.0% | 54.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Benfica | Total Goals | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | 2.56 | 1.59 |
Benfica vs. Juventus Betting Analysis
This match is critical for both clubs' European ambitions.
For Benfica, the path forward is clear: they must attack. With just one point separating them from the final playoff spot and a daunting final match against Real Madrid, a passive approach will not work.
This tactical necessity contrasts with their usual style, as only Bayern Munich has faced fewer shots from high turnovers this season, an indicator of their typically risk-averse strategy.
Juventus, while unbeaten in the Champions League under manager Luciano Spalletti, has not been dominant at home in the competition. The team secured just one home victory against Pafos and played to a draw at halftime in all three of its matches at the Allianz Stadium.
Their 1-1 result against Sporting further demonstrates that home-field advantage has not been a significant factor for them in Europe.
The head-to-head history heavily favors the visitors. Benfica is on a three-game winning streak against Juventus in the Champions League. This recent dominance provides a major psychological advantage and shows a clear pattern of success against the Italian giants.
Juventus has not secured a competitive win against Benfica in recent memory, which adds another layer of pressure on the home side.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Benfica vs Juventus picks.
