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Bournemouth vs. Everton Premier League Preview & Pick: This Prop Market Has Value

Bournemouth vs. Everton Premier League Preview & Pick: This Prop Market Has Value article feature image
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Tony McArdle/Getty. Pictured: Demarai Gray.

  • Bournemouth and Everton clash in a crucial Premier League fixture.
  • The duo are looking to avoid a relegation battle.
  • How should you be betting this fixture? Brett Pund explores.

Bournemouth vs. Everton Odds

Bournemouth Odds +180
Everton Odds +160
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+114 / -138)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Bournemouth welcome Everton to the Vitality Stadium on Saturday in a crucial match in the Premier League between two sides at the bottom of the table.

The new-manager bounce has worn off for the hosts, with the Cherries failing to win in the last five games.

Meanwhile, the Toffees have just one victory over the last six fixtures to sit in 16th and two points above the relegation zone.

This is set up to be an early six-pointer in the EPL relegation race, which could make this a cagey affair before the World Cup break.

Bournemouth Struggling to Do Anything

In his first six games in charge, interim manager Gary O’Neil was undefeated, but the club has since lost four on the bounce.

The Cherries haven’t necessarily played worse over this stretch. However, it looks as though the regression is finally hitting the club.

Since the change at manager, Bournemouth own a -8.4 xGDiff and have only won the xG battle in one fixture, according to fbref.com.

Sadly, O’Neil’s team has still been over-performing offensively, scoring 13 goals on 7.8 xG in his 10 games as manager. If the club can’t pick up results during this period, it could be a long season in the return to the English top flight.

Everton Relying on Outstanding Goalkeeping

Manager Frank Lampard’s side is similar to the Cherries in that Everton have had some decent luck this season.

On the campaign, the Toffees have a -3 goal difference compared to the -8.4 xGDiff, which comes from allowing 14 goals compared to the 23 xG.

The main man to thank for this has been goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, who ranks in the top three in the EPL in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed at +3.4.

If Lampard could just find someone to lead the frontline as well as Pickford as the anchor, it would be enough for Everton to stay in the EPL.

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Bournemouth vs. Everton Pick

When you have two defensive teams at the bottom of the table meeting for a league match, you typically see the managers tell their sides to keep it tight in the first half, and they will take their chances after halftime.

This is exactly what I see happening in this game, which is why my best bet is for the second half to be the higher scoring half.

Starting first with the Cherries, this same bet has cashed in half of the games under O’Neil. There have also been more goals in the second halves (17) compared to the first (12) in those fixtures.

As for Everton, Lampard’s side has also seen higher scoring after halftime, with 15 goals coming in the second half compared to 10 in the first.

Ironically, these two teams just played each other on Tuesday night in the EFL Cup, with Bournemouth claiming a 4-1 victory.

This same play would have also been a winning ticket in that match. So, I’m thinking we have a great chance of it happening again.

The Pick: Half with Most Goals – Second Half (+120)

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