Bournemouth vs. Southampton Prediction, Preview: The Best Value on the EPL Midweek Board?
Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Neto.
- Bournemouth faces off with Southampton in the Premier League on Wednesday.
- Brett Pund takes you through the fixture, offering his best bet and prediction.
- See where he's putting his money on Wednesday afternoon.
Bournemouth vs. Southampton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock|
|Odds via Ceasers. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Kicking off Wednesday’s slate in the Premier League, Bournemouth and Southampton meet for a derby on the south coast of England.
This has been a series dominated by the Saints, who have only lost two of the last 10 between the two sides in the EPL.
However, the Cherries enter in better form, holding a six-match unbeaten run coming into this fixture.
Neither of these clubs is known for their offensive firepower, and I’m not expecting many goals in this one either.
Bournemouth Simply Getting the Job Done
It might not be the most attractive brand of soccer each week, but interim manager Gary O’Neil is setting up his team to pick up results.
Since he became the head man, Bournemouth have not been beaten, which includes a win and two draws at the Vitality Stadium.
O’Neil’s team has had a bit of luck during this run, with the Cherries holding a -4.4 xGDiff and averaging just 0.767 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
At the end of the day, all that matters for a newly-promoted club are results, and O’Neil is building a great case that he deserves the interim tag to be removed.
Southampton's Youth Leading to Predictable Results
If Bournemouth come into the match on solid form, the same can not be said for Southampton, who has only one win over the last seven league fixtures.
The Saints have also struggled away from home, posting a -3 xGDiff and 0.54 expected goals per game average on the road this season.
Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl knows he has a young team, but he needs to get his strikers firing if the club wants to stay in the EPL.
Forwards Che Adams and Adam Armstrong are the main threats going forward, and we haven’t seen the same dangerous set pieces from James Ward-Prowse through the opening 10 matches. This is a very good opportunity for the club to turn it around.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Of all of the fixtures in this midweek slate, there will be more entertaining games, but I could argue that this match might have the best betting value on the board.
With that said, I’m settling on the total falling under 2.5 goals at -130 odds as my best bet.
Ultimately, these are just two of the worst attacking teams in the EPL. Both clubs rank in the Bottom 5 of the English top flight in big scoring chances created, expected goals per game and shots on target per 90 minutes.
Bournemouth’s home matches have averaged just 1.84 combined xG, and this same bet has cashed in three of five. Meanwhile, Saints’ road fixtures have had even fewer scoring opportunities, averaging just 1.68 combined expected goals.
Another play I do like in this game is to back the Cherries on the Draw No Bet market at -115, as I just don’t see them getting beat here. Because this should be low scoring, you want the draw protection in case we see a nil-nil or 1-1 match.
My favorite play is on the total, but I think the hosts also show some value in this game.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-130)