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Bundesliga Best Bets: Odds, Picks and Predictions for Bayern Munich vs. Wolfsburg (Saturday, June 27)

Bundesliga Best Bets: Odds, Picks and Predictions for Bayern Munich vs. Wolfsburg (Saturday, June 27) article feature image

Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images. Pictured: Joshua Kimmich

  • The 2019-20 Bundesliga season comes to an end on Saturday and Bayern Munich have already clinched the championship.
  • Bayern have not lost a match in 2020 and are favorites to keep the streak alive against Wolfsburg on Saturday.
  • Check out the updated odds, along with picks and best bets for Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich on Saturday morning:

Bayern Munich at Wolfsburg Odds, Pick

Bayern Munich odds -167 [BET NOW]
Wolfsburg odds +370 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +360 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-106)
Time Saturday at 9:30 a.m. ET

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Bayern Munich will try to put a cherry on top of another splendid Bundesliga season in their season finale against Wolfsburg, who have already secured a Europa League spot.

There’s a chance we see both Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich roll with a ‘B-Team’ lineup on Saturday as neither team has much to play for in this match. Bayern are particularly likely to rest some key players as Die Roten has a German Cup Final against Bayer Leverkusen to look forward to on July 4.

EPL PROMO! Bet $1, Win $50 if ANY team scores this week.

Motivation is a tricky thing to account for in betting and this match is particularly hard to read as neither team have anything really tangible to play for. It is Wolfsburg’s last match until they play the second leg of their Europa League tie against Shakhtar Donetsk in August.

You’d expect any team to be up for the challenge of beating Bayern Munich, but with a long break staring them in the face after a six-week sprint through the end of the season who knows if Wolfsburg will be looking ahead to the break.

Bayern have not lost a match in 2020 in all competitions and have won every match since a 0-0 draw agains Leipzig on Feb. 9. That includes going 8-for-8 since the Bundesliga returned from hiatus in May.

You can throw any of a hundred accolades at Bayern Munich for the way they’ve

Outside of hoping that Bayern dress their reserves or don’t care about the match, Wolfsburg’s most viable path to success in this match is through a strong defensive effort.

Die Wolfe boast the fourth-best defense by expected goals this season and are basically on par with Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig in terms of xG allowed per match. Even if Bayern are at full strength this would be a tricky game to navigate.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Wolfsburg Bayern Munich
Goals for per game 1.45 3
Expected goals for per game 1.68 2.77
Goals against per game 1.27 1
Expected goals against per game 1.27 1.19
Total goals per game 2.73 4
Total expected goals per game 2.95 3.96

It’s not been fun betting against Bayern Munich in 2020 and I’m not particularly thrilled about doing it again on Saturday, but if you’re going to be watching this match and are just looking for action, I do think the value lies with Die Wolfe considering the unknowns ahead of this game.

There’s a couple of different ways I’d consider betting on Wolfsburg. I considered taking them on the “Draw No Bet” line at +128, but if they are good enough to earn a draw with Bayern Munich I’d much rather take the chance at a bigger payout on the full-game moneyline at +350. Additonally, if you’re in the mood for a longshot, I don’t hate the idea of splitting that bet, putting half of the stake on the moneyline and half on Wolfsburg To Win To Nil at +1050.

If Wolfsburg wins, it will likely be thanks to a solid defensive performance, so I think sprinkling that prob could be a fun little sweat on Saturday morning.

Picks: Wolfsburg (+350); Wolfsburg To Win To Nil (+1050)

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