Bundesliga Odds & Picks: Expect Goals in Augsburg vs. Paderborn (Wednesday, May 27)

Credit:

Martin Meissner/Pool for Getty Images. Pictured: Felix Uduokhai and Reece Oxford.

  • Bundesliga action continues Wednesday, with a match between bottom half clubs Augsburg and Paderborn.
  • We should see plenty of goals in this one, as these two boast some of the worst expected goals averages in the Bundesliga.
Odds
Augsburg -110
Paderborn +280
Draw +270
Total 2.5 (-150)
Time 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Fox Match Pass

Odds as of Wednesday morning and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


This is definitely not one of the marquee Bundesliga matches during the week’s busy slate, but there are plenty of ripe plays alive in this showdown of mediocre outfits.

Augsburg, which is 10th in the league with 37.50 expected goals, pulled off a convincing 3-0 road win at struggling Schalke and saw its six-match winless skid end in style. It was Augsburg’s first shutout since a 3-0 win against Fortuna Duesseldorf on December 17, which has to give the club plenty of confidence heading into this showdown.

In contrast, Paderborn struggled to a 1-1 draw against Hoffenheim and continued its slide toward relegation. Paderborn, which enters the match a dismal 15th in expected goals (30.33) in Bundesliga action, is winless in its last eight league tilts and hasn’t won since a Jan. 25 victory against Freiburg.

Defensively, these are two of the worst teams in terms of expected goals against in the entire league. Paderborn is the fourth worst in the category at 51.57 expected goals against, with Augsburg only slightly better in the Bundesliga in sixth place at 47.27 expected goals allowed.

That data alone has me backing the total going over the number here. Add in the fact 12 of Augsburg’s last 13 home league matches have gone over the line for total goals and it has me playing it with confidence.

As for a side, I am going with Augsburg to get the job done on home soil. That road win at Schalke last weekend was quite impressive and I see the club securing three points against a Paderborn side that has just two wins in 13 road league matches this season.

The Bets: Augsburg (-110); Over 2.5 Goals (-150); Both Teams To Score (-175)

[Bet now at FanDuel. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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