Bundesliga Odds & Picks: Best Bets For Gladbach vs Bayern & More
ANP/Getty. Pictured: Rocco Reitz.
Five teams remain perfect with six points from six in the opening two match weeks of the Bundesliga season. It's no surprise to see Bayern Munich as one of the five, and they're joined by Union Berlin, Wolfsburg, Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen. There are four coming up the rear with zero points — newly promoted Darnstadt and Heidenheim alongside Köln and Werder Bremen.
The two premier matches of the weekend will conclude the Saturday and Sunday slates as Borussia Monchengladbach host Bayern Munich and the Foals look to continue their bizarre successful run against the German champions. RB Leipzig then visit Union Berlin on Sunday as the capital side continues to outrun expectations and expected xG finishing regression with its attack.
Here are my Bundesliga picks for the upcoming weekend.
Bundesliga Odds & Picks
|Over / Under|
-400 / +300
Borussia Monchengladbach have been dramatically downgraded by the market in the early season Bundesliga returns. I entered the season quite low on the Foals, who are replacing a ton of key players from both the attack and defense and haven't spent much money to replace them. The results haven't been good, either. They blew a 3-1 first half lead to Augsburg and needed a stoppage time penalty to salvage a point in a match they were clearly outplayed the Foals then lost badly at home to Leverkusen last weekend, 3-0.
There's a decent chance we don't know where the bottom really is yet for this Gladbach squad. But if the Foals were ever going to show something, a home contest against Bayern Munich is the exact time to back them. The market is giving us a number at home that is difficult to pass up.
Gladbach have been the bogey team for Bayern for multiple seasons now, too. Bayern will be without Jamal Musiala due to injury, but the Foals are dealing with a ton of injuries at the moment too. Luca Netz, Nico Elvedi, Hannes Wolf and Manu Koné will all miss this contest, leaving Gladbach shorthanded at multiple key positions.
The market may be overreacting to these injuries, though, because the odds are moving toward Gladbach as a +2 goal underdog at home.
The Foals have four wins, two draws and just one defeat against Bayern in the last seven contests. They may be in decline, but this is the ideal buy low opportunity as a huge home underdog.
Pick: Gladbach +1.5 (+115)
Eintracht Frankfurt are in some early season turmoil because of the uncertain transfer status of striker Randal Kolo Muani. He was on strike and trying to force a move to PSG, but as of writing on Friday, that move won't be coming to fruition. The Frankfurt attack has seriously underwhelmed in the early season data and there's real reason to be concerned about it if Kolo Muani won't be fully motivated or in the lineup at all come Sunday.
Through two Bundesliga match weeks, Frankfurt are dead last in passes into the penalty area, crosses into the box and shots attempted per 90. They relied heavily on producing a lot of high quality despite mediocre ball progression numbers, but the offseason losses of the last two seasons seem to be finally taking their toll on the quality of the underlying attack.
Köln don't have any points to show for their early season performances in part because the attack has really struggled to create consistent chances. They did an excellent job of keeping Borussia Dortmund out its penalty area in match week one before conceding a late goal to Donyell Malen. They rank inside the bottom six in ball progression and shot production numbers too.
Neither side has had defensive issues in the early season, but both attacks are still struggling to find their footing and create consistent scoring chances. I'd bet under 2.5 at -110 or better.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110)
|Union Berlin Odds||+240|
|RB Leipzig Odds||+120|
|Over / Under|
-110 / -110
If you've been following Union Berlin for the last season and two matches, then you know that Urs Fischer's side has been one of the most efficient finishing sides in all of Europe. They've picked up right where they left off last season through two matches. Union have eight goals from 3.6 xG this year and scored 51 from 37.9 last year.
One reason I was highly skeptical of the over-performance being repeatable was the shot quality. Union were bottom five in the league in both total shots per 90 and average shot distance. They had the lowest xG per shot in the entire league.
Union did make some real marginal improvements to the attack with Robin Gosens as an attacking full back and excellent crosser to fit the system. Brenden Aaronson does a lot of pressing from the middle and contributed to a goal already.
Union is generating a lot of high quality shots through the first two matches of the season — they rank third in xG per shot — which would be a more sustainable way of consistently over performing the expected goals metrics.
Goalkeeper Frederick Rønnow has also continued to outperform his underlying metrics in goal this season. He was the Bundesliga's top goalkeeper last year with +8.2 goals saved and this year he's already saved 2.3 goals for the German side.
Union Berlin's attack should be better in 2023-24, so despite the market keeping their totals very low, I actually am betting against the "xG regression" and expecting the defense to concede more but offense to score more in 2023-24.