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Sunday Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: for Augsburg vs. Koln (Sunday, June 7)

Sunday Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Predictions: for Augsburg vs. Koln (Sunday, June 7) article feature image

INA FASSBENDER/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Jonas Hector

  • The betting market expects a tight match between Augsburg and Koln on Sunday afternoon in a primetime Bundesliga slot.
  • We expect some fireworks, and our betting picks support that.
  • Get our preview and prediction for Augsburg vs. Koln below.

Koln at Augsburg Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

Koln odds +143
Augsburg odds +175
Draw odds +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-139/+112)
Time Sunday, 12 p.m. ET

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two below-average teams with not all that much to play for will bring Matchweek 30 of the Bundesliga to a close on Sunday afternoon.

In their eight combined matches since Germany’s top division resumed play, FC Koln and Augsburg have one win, four losses and three draws. It’s not like they’ve played the cream of the crop either, with just one of those eight matches coming against top-five opposition.

It was predictable that Koln and Augsburg — two teams basically stuck in no man’s land in the middle of the table — would come out of the gates flat. That being said, Koln vs. Augsburg is an island game and is being broadcast on FS1, so there should be a decent handle for a match that would have flown under the radar in different circumstances.

Only three points separate 12th-place Koln from 13th-place Augsburg and their statistical profiles are also pretty similar:

Koln Augsburg
Goals for per game 1.59 1.38
Expected goals for per game 1.6 1.38
Goals against per game 1.93 1.93
Expected goals against per game 1.54 1.77
Total goals per game 3.52 3.31
Total expected goals per game 3.14 3.15

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

It’s no surprise that the market is making this match out to be a relative toss up. When you convert the above odds to implied probability, this is what you get:

  • Koln: 38.8%
  • Draw: 26.9%
  • Augsburg: 34.3%

While I don’t think there’s that much value on the three-way moneyline, I do think the over/under is worth exploring. Considering that this match will be played in a low-pressure environment, neither team really has anything to gain or lose this season, I think it could be a free-flowing contest.

There is the chance that the two sides mail it in and play out a snoozefest, but neither of these teams are defensive stalwarts so I’m fine taking a chance on this match featuring some crooked numbers.

Even though there have only been eight total goals scored in Augsburg’s four matches since the break, Koln’s last four games have featured 18 total goals and 76% of Die Geißböcke contests this season have soared over 2.5 goals.

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Neither of these two teams will be confused with Bayern Munich on attack, but they both feature serviceable offenses with Koln ranking eighth in the Bundesliga in expected goals for and Augsburg sitting 12th in the same category.

Additionally, Augsburg’s leaky defense, which ranks sixth-worst in terms of xG against this season, should provide plenty of opportunities for Koln to find the back of the net and hopefully open things up.

At the time of writing the over 2.5 is juiced to -139, and I think that’s a sensible wager, but if this match does open up I think we could see plenty more scoring than that. These two teams typically see 3.15 expected goals per match, so I have no problem having a flutter on the alternate total of over 3.5 at a bigger price.

PICK: Over 3.5 goals (+185)

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