Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: RB Salzburg vs. Bayern Munich (Tuesday, Nov. 3)

RB Salzburg vs. Bayern Munich Odds

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RB Salzburg welcome the reigning champions of Europe to Austria in Matchweek 3 of the Champions League Group stage. Bayern Munich will be favored in every group-stage match by a wide margin, and this one is no different.

RB Salzburg are no slouch though, having scored two goals in each of their first two group games. This matchup should feature a lot of attacking and excitement.

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RB Salzburg

RB Salzburg have been a fun team in recent years in the Champions League. Last season in the group stage, they came back from 3-0 down against Liverpool at Anfield to level the game, only to lose, 4-3.

This year, Salzburg’s first two group games did not disappoint in the goal department. They opened Group A play with a 2-2 draw against Lokomotiv Moscow before a late Atletico Madrid goal led to a 3-2 away defeat.

The seven-time-reigning Austrian Bundesliga champions are managed by American Jesse Marsch, who is one of the more creative and offensive-minded coaches in Europe. Marsch will likely move to  a more prestigious club at some point in the near future.

Salzburg has had to replace young stars like Erling Haaland (Borussia Dortmund) and Takumi Minamino (Liverpool), both of whom were sold in January. They are doing just fine domestically at the moment, having won their first six league games while averaging four goals per game. The Champions League will be tough for them, but this is a team that can score with anyone.

The xG data from their 2-2 draw with Lokomotiv Moscow was pretty even, 0.94-0.80 in their favor. However, Salzburg had triple the shots (15) and double the shots on target (seven). I think they played pretty well in that game and had slightly better chances than Lokomotiv.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The 3-2 loss in Madrid yielded xG totals of 2.59-1.43 in favor of the Spanish side. Still, the Austrian side played really well and took their chances. Seven shots inside the 18-yard box and scoring twice against Atletico is pretty impressive.

Salzburg will not have enough to get three points off Bayern Munich, but I expect them to score enough to make it interesting.

Bayern Munich

Where to start with Bayern Munich. They won the Champions League last season and are probably the best team on the planet. Manager Hansi Flick has transformed this team since he took over right around this time last year, and they haven’t looked back.

Bayern are the prohibitive favorites to win the German Bundesliga once again and have picked up three points in each of their first two Champions League matches. A Matchweek 1 fixture with Atletico brought a 4-0 win in Munich that was crazy impressive, although a 2-1 away victory over Lokomotiv was a bit of a grind for them.

Bayern play a high defensive line to tempt opposing attackers into offside positions, which can leave them vulnerable at the back when it does not pan out. Their attacking prowess and finishing ability is otherworldly. The only potential weakness is at the back, and they may be light on depth in midfield. But still, Bayern are deserving favorites to repeat in this competition.

The 4-0 win over Atletico yielded an xG total of 2.80-0.41, which is pretty crazy considering the defensive force that manager Diego Simeone’s side is. In the 2-1 win over Lokomotiv, the Bavarians had an xG advantage of 3.01-1.51. Bayern are atop the Bundesliga and are averaging 2.98 xG/game, which is pretty insane.

Bayern Munich have the best striker in the world in Robert Lewandowski and extremely talented wingers in Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane. Thomas Muller is timeless, and Joshua Kimmich is one of the more underrated players in Germany.

This team scores goals for fun. I expect more of the same against RB Salzburg in what should be another win for the defending champions of Europe.

RB Salzburg-Bayern Munich Pick

I like Over 4 at -112, up to -120. Yes, I know four goals is a lot of goals, but both of these teams have scored two or more in basically all of their games this season.

Bayern scoring at least three feels like an outcome with high probability, and I expect Salzburg to grab at least one. Waiting for a 3.75 or 3.5 total live would be preferred, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get an early goal. I expect a 3-2 or 4-2 scoreline at the final whistle in favor of Bayern.

The PICK: Over 4 (-112) or Over 3.5/3.75 live

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