Lille vs. Sevilla Odds, Pick & Preview: Bet the Favorite on Wednesday Afternoon

Lille vs. Sevilla Odds, Pick & Preview: Bet the Favorite on Wednesday Afternoon article feature image
Credit:

Mateo Villalba/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Youssef En-Nesryi.

  • Lille takes on Seivlla in Wednesday's Champions League action in France.
  • Group G was the most balanced of the eight quartets when the draw was released, and it has remained tight with three of the four matches ending in draws thus far.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the match below and explains where he's found the most betting value.

Lille vs. Sevilla Odds

Lille Odds +235
Sevilla Odds +130
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+135 / -165)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Group G was the most balanced of the eight Champions League groups from top to bottom when the draw was released, and it’s remained tight with three of the four matches ending in draws thus far.

As Sevilla travels to Lille on Wednesday, three points would be extremely valuable for either side given how tight and low-scoring the games in Group G have been.

Both of Sevilla’s Champions League goals have come from the penalty spot as everyone in this group has struggled to create chances and goals from open play.

Given the defensive solidity of these two sides and a total of 2.25, goals should be difficult to come by in this matchup. But Sevilla is the much better team with a much more effective attacking plan and is undervalued to take all three points away from home in this match.

The market has moved slightly toward Lille, but the reigning Ligue 1 champions have been very mediocre in France and Sevilla’s much better league form should shine through.

Lille Defense Struggling Early in Season

Lille suffered a setback when center back Sven Botman picked up an injury as he’s expected to miss this match on Wednesday. Botman has started nearly every game for Lille and is a significant loss at the heart of one of Europe’s best defenses, according to expected goals allowed.

Les Dogues have struggled to replace the loss of goalkeeper Mike Maignan to AC Milan since he was a part of the reason that Lille overperformed its defensive xGA numbers last year en route to stealing the Ligue 1 title from PSG.

New goalkeeper Ivo Grbic has been fine with average shot-stopping numbers thus far, but Maignan saved about five goals over expected last season. Lille’s defense applies very little pressure on the ball and still manages to keep opponents out of its penalty area in France. Les Dogues have allowed the third fewest crosses into the penalty area and third fewest penalty area entries.

It’s going forward where Lille has serious issues and won’t be able to threaten an excellent Sevilla defense. Lille is eighth in non-penalty xG difference in France, but those numbers are inflated by its second ranking in big scoring chances. Given Lille’s ball progression and shot numbers, it’s not sustainable that it would continue to produce that many high-quality chances.

The high-quality chances are propping up a Lille attack that has otherwise struggled. Once the big chances dry up, the numbers in attack will drop even further.

Given that Sevilla’s defense concedes fewer shots, xG and big scoring chances than everyone in Spain, it’s hard to see how Lille produces chances in this match.

Sevilla Have Value on the Road

La Liga is as wide open for a title challenge from outside the big three as it has ever been, and both Sevilla and Real Sociedad are primed to step up and make a challenge for the Spanish title. Through eight matches of 38, Sevilla has the best xG difference in La Liga at +0.79 per 90.

The underlying statistical profile of this Sevilla team is even more impressive given that striker Youssef En-Nesyri has been in and out of the lineup due to injury this season. He didn’t play in the match against Wolfsburg and may not start on Wednesday, but he could come off the bench in the second half to try to find the winning goal.

Sevilla has created the third most and allowed the fewest big scoring chances in La Liga, but the box entries and crossing numbers at both ends of the pitch remain elite. Sevilla relies heavily on crossing under manager Julen Lopetegui, who loves to set up in a slow ball progression system that methodically moves the ball up the field. They then look to the wings for crosses and try to create chances from there.

Given that Lille won’t have Botman, they could be more vulnerable defensively through the air in this match.

Sevilla’s impressive Spanish performances may not have transferred into the Champions League yet, but given the sample size is bigger in Spain and given the club’s history of success in Europe, their struggles in two matches aren’t indicative of much going forward.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Of all the games on Wednesday, Sevilla vs. Lille has the lowest total and features two play styles that are very pragmatic and slow-paced. There’s likely to be long periods of stalemate between these two sides with no shots or real chances generated.

While neither offense has posted elite numbers, the Lille defense is shorthanded without Botman and Sevilla has a more clear plan to attack Lille through crosses than Les Dogues do at the other end of the pitch against Spain’s top defense. Outside of the three penalties conceded to Salzburg in a nightmare, Sevilla has surrendered almost nothing in the Champions League or La Liga this year and should be able to prevent Lille from scoring.

Sevilla is in a good buy-low spot after two mediocre showings in Europe, and I trust that their excellent La Liga form will translate to the Champions League on Wednesday to find the goal needed to win this match.

Pick: Sevilla ML (+130 or better)

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