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Tuesday Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Manchester United vs. Atlético Madrid Betting Preview

Tuesday Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Manchester United vs. Atlético Madrid Betting Preview article feature image
Credit:

Naomi Baker/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo.

  • Manchester United welcomes Atlético Madrid to Old Trafford for Tuesday's Champions League showdown.
  • The Red Devils have held firm as a +115 ML favorite in the betting odds, but could have a tough go of it against their La Liga counterparts.
  • Brett Pund breaks down the game below and explains why he expects both teams to score goals.

Man United vs. Atlético Madrid Odds

Man United Odds +115
Atlético Madrid Odds +240
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -140)
Day | Time Tuesday | 4 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Following a 1-1 draw in the opening match, Manchester United hosts Atlético Madrid on Tuesday in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 tie at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils will have confidence after securing a late equalizer during the first meeting in the Spanish capital. However, they will need to produce a better performance to advance to the quarterfinal round.

Meanwhile, the Spanish giants are unbeaten in five across all competitions and dominated the home fixture between these sides.

Historically, second games of knockout competitions typically produce more goals than the opening legs, which I think is a trend to back in this match.

Man United Near Perfect Under Rangnick

Many United fans questioned the appointment of Ralf Ragnick as manager back in December, but he has guided the club to consistent results.

Since he was hired, the Red Devils have only lost two games in regular time across all competitions, which is a span of 19 matches.

One key reason for the great form has been the attacking numbers, where United has averaged 1.51 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com, and scored a goal in all but two contests.

The big question coming into the game is whether key midfielder Bruno Fernandes will recover from the illness that held him out of the weekend win over Tottenham Hotspur in time to feature in this important contest.

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Resurgent Atlético Madrid Reverses Fortune

Things weren’t looking great for manager Diego Simeone’s side a month ago, but a four-game winning streak has added some positivity around the club.

Atlético has used the run to move up to third in the La Liga table, putting it just four points off Sevilla in second place.

During this stretch, Simeone’s team has scored 10 goals for an average of 2.5 goals per game, which has been led by Portuguese playmaker João Félix. The standout, who scored Atlético’s goal in the first leg, has scored in three of four fixtures in this winning run.


BJ Cunningham’s UCL Model Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

Looking at the odds via BetMGM, United is listed as the favorite to win this match at +115 on the moneyline and to qualify for the next round at -175 odds.

That said, there’s no way I could trust the English side at that price, which is why I’m looking in the props market in a game that should include goals.

So, my best bet is to play the Both on Number of Teams to Score in Regular Time at -120 odds. This wager is commonly known as Both Teams to Score at other books on the betting landscape.

I wrote about the offensive numbers for both clubs recently, but these are teams that have struggled to secure shutouts. For United, Rangnick’s side has only picked up three shutouts in the last 12 games overall. Meanwhile, Atlético Madrid has given up a goal in eight of its last 10 matches.

You also have to look at how Madrid has defended away from home this season. In the 14 La Liga road fixtures, this same bet has cashed in 11 games (79%) and 12 of the matches (86%) finished with more than 2.5 goals for a season average of 3.57 combined goals per away contest.

Simeone’s side also gave up a goal in all three road games in the UCL group stage. The Red Devils have been no strangers conceding goals either, surrendering a goal in all but one game in the competition so far.

If you want a better price, your book might offer a Single Game Parlay pairing Both Teams to Score (Yes) and Total Over 2.5 Goals, which I think is a great play as well. I also wouldn’t hate backing Félix (+230) or Cristiano Ronaldo (+185) to score anytime in the player props market.

My best bet cashed in the first leg, so I think there’s great value for it to happen in the return leg.

Pick: Number of Teams to Score in Regular Time — Both (-120)

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