Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: FC Midtjylland vs. Ajax (Tuesday, Nov. 3)
Mattia Ozbot/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Ajax forward Lassina Traoré.
Midtjylland vs. Ajax Odds
|Midtjylland Odds||+440 [BET NOW]|
|Ajax Odds||-165 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+320 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
Things should heat up Tuesday in Denmark when Ajax takes on FC Midtjylland, which is part of another busy Champions League card around Europe.
This is a crucial match for these clubs, with both looking for their first victories in Group D action. Ajax, which has a point through it first two matches, is hoping to keep pace with Liverpool and Atalanta.
In contrast, Midtjylland is pointless and simply trying to get back in the mix before it’s too late.
Let’s take a look at this matchup and see what might be in store.
The Danish side has been the definition of disappointing so far, suffering back-to-back shutout defeats against Serie A side Atalanta (4-0) and 2019 champion Liverpool (2-0) heading into this game.
Midtjylland saw its recent poor form continue this past weekend when it was handed a 4-1 loss against Nordsjaelland in Danish Superliga action.
Suffice it to say, it’s now or never for the Wolves. They must secure some kind of positive result or it is basically lights out on their Champions League campaign.
Looking at the statistical data, Midtjylland sits at the bottom of the Group D quartet. The club has a minuscule 1.5 expected goals and brutal 5.6 expected goals against, yielding a -4.1 xGDiff and -2.05 xGDiff/90 minutes. Simply put, those numbers are just not going to get it done in this competition.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Everything seems to be looking up for the Dutch powerhouse, which is unbeaten in four of its last five matches across all competitions.
The Sons of the Gods, who enter this fixture fresh off a 5-2 victory against Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie action over the weekend, have to be thinking this is a mandatory, three-point match if it plans on hanging with Liverpool and Atalanta on the table.
Ajax, which sits atop the Dutch top flight’s standings, hasn’t lost since it’s 1-0 setback against Liverpool to kick off its slate, seems to be firing on all cylinders. Manager Erik ten Hag would like nothing more than to see this meeting kickstart a tournament run similar to the one that took the club all the way to the semifinal round two years back.
When comparing Ajax’s numbers with Midtjylland, you could probably image the Dutch side is far ahead of its counterpart. Ajax boasts 3.3 expected goals and brutal 3.0 expected goals against, yielding a +0.3 xGDiff and +0.17 xGDiff/90 minutes.
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You have one team rounding into top form facing another mired in mediocrity. It’s as simple as that.
For that reason alone, I am back Ajax to get the job done and secure all three points against its Danish counterpart. The Sons of the Gods are playing better and, top to bottom, have been then stronger of the clubs.
I will also jump on the total to go over the alternative number of 2.75 goals. There is no value whatsoever on 2.5 goals and I feel like you’re potentially going to push on three goals. Honestly, who wants that?
That said, I recommend buying the number up a tad. Ajax could hit three goals on its own, so play it with confidence.
Picks: Ajax ML (-165) | Total Over 2.75 Goals (-167)