Champions League Round of 16: Overwhelming Support for Juventus to Beat Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid take a 2-0 lead to Juventus for their Round of 16 second leg encounter, and are -400 favorites to advance to the quarterfinals.
- In Champions League history, more than 80% of teams advance when taking a 2-0 lead on the road, but 3 of the last 4 have failed to progress.
Juventus not only have to win the second leg against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday (4 p.m. ET on TNT), but they’ll need to do so by at least two goals to advance to the quarterfinals.
Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid have conceded just once to Italian opposition in seven Champions League matches all-time (five wins, two draws), so a Juventus win by two or more goals would be unprecedented.
Juventus have lost back-to-back matches in the Champions League this season but have never lost three straight in the competition before.
Betting Odds (Atletico Madrid lead 2-0)
Atletico Madrid earned a convincing 2-0 win at home in the opening leg and are now -400 favorites to advance to the quarterfinals. They’ve lost just once in their last 11 UCL matches and have kept a clean sheet in four consecutive UCL games.
Thirteen of 16 teams (81.3%) have advanced when taking a 2-0 lead on the road for a second leg. However, three of the last four in this scenario have failed to progress.
Atletico Madrid will automatically advance with any win, draw or one-goal loss. A 2-0 loss by Atletico would send the game to extra time, but any other two-goal loss would be enough see Atletico advance based on away goals.
If Atletico Madrid score in the second leg, Juventus will be required to score at least four goals and would need to win by at least a three-goal margin to advance.
In the simplest terms, it’s absolutely essential for Juventus to score the first goal of the match.
Injuries + Suspensions
- Juventus: Juan Cuadrado (out), Sami Khedira (out), Douglas Costa (out), Alex Sandro (suspension)
- Atletico Madrid: Filipe Luis (out), Lucas Hernandez (out), Thomas Partey (suspension), Diego Costa (suspension)
Betting Market Breakdown
Juventus rested most of their starters in a 4-1 Serie A victory over Udinese last Friday but will be without key pieces Juan Cuadrado, Sami Khedira and Douglas Costa for the second leg.
Atletico Madrid have concerns of their own, especially on the defensive left side of the field with Filipe Luis and Lucas Hernandez out due to injury. Up front, striker Diego Costa is suspended for yellow card accumulation.
Everyone is aware of how structured and organized Atletico Madrid are as a cohesive, defensive-minded unit; the challenging part is how to actually attack successfully and break them down to score goals.
Juventus have been shut out in their last three meetings against Atletico Madrid, and will need to take a page out of Dortmund’s playback from the group stage to pull off the comeback.
Bettors have had no fear backing Juventus to win the second leg as they’ve accounted for nearly 90% of all wagers so far.
After opening at -130, Juventus have reached -140/-145 around the market and those odds could keep increasing until kickoff. A multi-goal victory is necessary to advance and the public feels confident they can at least win by one.
The over/under has seen a bit more indecision with 60% of bets on over (2.5) and 40% of bets on under (2.5). Sportsbooks have taken a bit of sharp money on the under and adjusted the juice accordingly to -140.
It will be fascinating to see how the match pans out based on who scores the opening goal. If Atletico Madrid are able to get one in the first half, Juventus would have to push everything forward for the rest of the game and likely leave themselves exposed.
However, if Juve can be patient and keep Atletico Madrid off the board for as long as possible, a 2-0 win could be attainable.
This match is difficult to predict and while I lean toward Juventus earning a victory, there’s no real value in the -140 price range.
- Juventus are available at their longest odds of the tournament, 18-1.
- Atletico Madrid now have the third-best odds at 8-1 to win the Champions League after rivals Real Madrid were knocked off by Ajax. They could also be the last Spanish team standing if Barcelona are knocked out by Lyon on Wednesday.
- The Champions League Final will be played at Atletico Madrid’s home stadium, Wanda Metropolitano, on June 1st, 2019. It would be a daunting task for any team to have to face Atletico Madrid on their home turf in the final.
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