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Champions League Round of 16 Odds, Picks, Prediction: Inter Milan Providing Betting Value Against Mohamed Salah, Liverpool (Feb. 16)

Champions League Round of 16 Odds, Picks, Prediction: Inter Milan Providing Betting Value Against Mohamed Salah, Liverpool (Feb. 16) article feature image
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Andrea Staccioli/Insidefoto/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Napoli standout Lorenzo Insigne.

  • Inter Milan welcomes Premier League giant Liverpool to San Siro Stadium for Wednesday's Champions League showdown.
  • The Serie A power currently sits as a +255 ML underdog, but Avery Zimmerman things the club is live to get a result in the first leg.
  • Check out his detailed betting analysis and preview below surrounding the featured match on the UCL card.

Inter vs. Liverpool Odds

Inter Odds +255
Liverpool Odds +110
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +110)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch CBS | Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Liverpool has already won at San Siro Stadium this season get a chance to do so again when it travels to Italy to face Inter Milan on Wednesday in the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchup.

The Serie A favorites enter this game as home underdogs despite representing themselves well in the competition. Inter is currently second in the league by a point, but it has a game in hand on AC Milan and currently sits at-225 odds to take home the crown in the Italian top flight.

Manager Jürgen Klopp’s team is currently second in the Premier League, but the club’s game in hand likely won’t be as useful as Inter’s as Liverpool has to catch a dominant Manchester City squad.

So, who will prevail when the two domestic powerhouses meet in this contest?

Inter Needs Huge Result at San Siro

While the Champions League changed its rules this year to make away goals no longer count for two in the case of a draw on aggregate, picking up a victory will be just as vital for Inter in this fixture.

We all know how difficult it is to go into Anfield and get a result. Liverpool has lost just one European contest in 90 minutes at home since 2015, so securing an edge will be crucial for the Nerazzurri.

Fortunately for Inter, it has been absolutely dominant at home, posting the best home xG number in the Serie A and the second-best number in the entirety of the UCL group stage.

Some familiar faces will be leading the line for Inter. If you’re a frequent viewer of the Premier League in recent years — and maybe more than that at this point — you’ll recall Edin Džeko and (likely) Alexis Sánchez on the pitch. An injury to Joaquín Correa means those two and Lautaro Martínez could be the Inter attackers.

Those aren’t names that’ll particularly worry Liverpool, but they’ve all combined to play their parts in a lethal attack this year. They’ll need that come game time.

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Liverpool Looking to Continue New Year Form

Things were getting a bit nervy for the Reds when they closed out 2021 with a draw against Tottenham and loss to Leicester City, but as any great juggernaut does, Liverpool righted the ship at the start of 2022 and it hasn’t looked back.

Liverpool has seven wins and two draws on the year, winning six in a row heading into this fixture. While some of those results have been a touch fortunate — primarily a 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace — that shouldn’t diminish the fact Liverpool is rounding into form and becoming a serious danger to the Champions League once again.

Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané are back from the Africa Cup of Nations tournament unscathed, and for the most part, this is a healthy squad. It’s not the Liverpool that entered last season’s UCL knockout stages without a proper center-back combination and limited attackers, but rather a fresh and eager side.

Getting a draw or a win at the San Siro would be ideal, but there isn’t too much pressure on Liverpool when it knows that it has one of the toughest places to play in the sport to return to for the second leg.

Betting Analysis & Pick

While Liverpool looks like it is firing on all cylinders at the moment, Inter’s home form is just too impressive for me to ignore.

Inter’s Champions League xG/game differential of 1.59 is 0.24 better than Liverpool’s away number of 1.35, and its 1.01 xG/match differential in the league shows that it’s no fluke. There’s no question that Liverpool is one of the few sides that can go into the San Siro and find a result (it has done it already this year against AC Milan), but it’s hard to fade this Inter side at home.

Manager Simone Inzaghi’s squad almost requires a draw or better to have any real chance of progressing, and when you’re getting a margin with a half-goal that is nearly at a Pick’em price, that’s the side I have to roll with in this clash.

I see Liverpool progressing in the competition, but I’m not sure it’ll thrive here.

Pick: Inter +0.5 (-120)

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