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Chelsea vs. Tottenham EPL Preview: Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction for Premier League Showdown

Chelsea vs. Tottenham EPL Preview: Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction for Premier League Showdown article feature image
Credit:

Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham teammates celebrate a goal.

  • Chelsea welcomes Tottenham Hotspur to Stamford Bridge for Sunday's Premier League showdown.
  • The Blues are solid home moneyline favorites, but handicapper Anthony Dabbundo has found plenty of value via another wager.
  • Check out below why he's targeting the game total as his top pick in this exciting confrontation.

Chelsea vs. Spurs Odds

Chelsea Odds +125
Spurs Odds +210
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -115)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The first matchup of the Premier League season featuring two Big Six clubs takes place Sunday when Tottenham visits Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues beat Spurs four times last season in four contests between the clubs, three of which came after the latter hired manager Antonio Conte in November. Chelsea won twice, first in the EFL Cup semifinal round in January and then notched a  2-0 EPL win shortly thereafter.

Despite recent history, the market has moved toward Tottenham since Chelsea opened as +105 moneyline favorite. The visiting side rolled to a 4-1 win against Southampton on debut, doing it without Harry Kane and Son Heung-min contributing scoring goals.

The betting-market respect on Spurs, which began at +3200 at some sportsbooks to win the title and closed as low as +1200,  has continued into this match. While I don’t see value in the three-way moneyline market, I am targeting the total.

Chelsea

Chelsea struggled to turn final-third possession and game control into  chances against Everton. Kai Havertz isn’t providing enough shot production up top,. Mason Mount had a quiet game and the wing backs didn’t provide quite enough to supplement them.

As impressive as Raheem Sterling was with the ball at his feet, Spurs will most certainly use an extra center back to shade the defense in his direction.

Chelsea completed 20 passes into the final third of the pitch, but just five into the penalty area versus Everton. That shows an inefficient attack, which stems from manager Thomas Tuchel’s comments where he expressed concern.

The defense remains the strongest part of this Chelsea side, especially while N’Golo Kanté is fit. He maintains his value as one of the world’s  best defensive midfielders and the Blues’ defense is dramatically better with him out there.

By The Numbers

  • +0.75 — For all of the talk of regression in the second half of last season, Chelsea was more than good enough to finish top 4 with this xGDiff in the second half.
  • 0.8 — If you take out the penalty awarded to them at the end of the first half, the Blues struggled to create scoring chances and produced this amount of non-penalty xG against Everton last time out.
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Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham has scored more EPL goals than any team — even Manchester City and Liverpool — this year. That’s the primary driver of the improved market ratings and the reason Spurs were the most popular bet to win the league at some books.

While Tottenham is improved under Conte, the question is whether or not that level of performance in the second half is sustainable. From a finishing perspective, it’s certainly not. The attack won’t continue to finish more efficiently than every team, plus Spurs inability to dominate the midfield and control possession will likely cost them as a big favorites against lesser sides.

Tottenham relies on creating a handful of big scoring chances, instead of overwhelming foes with shots. From February on, Spurs produced about 1.79 xG per 90 minutes, but average 2.13 goals during that time frame. Betting against Kane and Son is difficult to do, but Chelsea conceded fewer big scoring chances than every team but Manchester City last season.

By The Numbers

  • +7.82 — From Feb. 1 to the rest of last season, no team over-performed its underlying xG created more than Tottenham did. The club scored nearly eight more goals than expected, per Understat.
  • 50.8 — This was the percentage Spurs possessed the ball against Southampton, which is a sign Chelsea will control things in this contest.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

The public and market sentiment is that Tottenham is the better team than Chelsea, but you’d need to think that to justify betting the visitor at this price. I don’t see how that is the case, especially since the Blues are healthy and have their first-choice midfield available.

My concerns with Chelsea are more long term, as I wonder if it has the depth to compete in the midfield over 38 games if N’Golo Kanté, Mateo Kovačić or Jorginho are injured.

Spurs will look to attack when they win the ball by capitalizing on the Blues attempts to press and counter-press.  As they showed beating Manchester City and tying Liverpool, Conte’s plan and his club’s talent can break open the best of defenses. Unlike City and Liverpool, I believe Chelsea’s back three is more equipped to deal with Tottenhham’s wing backs getting forward.

My projections have this match at just 2.35 goals. Plus, from a tactical standpoint. I think this game sets up for Chelsea to dominate field tilt and possession. However, the Blues have lacked an ability to create consistent scoring chances against other elite EPL sides.

I’d bet the total staying under 2.5 goals at -115 or better.

The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

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