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Coppa Italia Final Odds, Picks, Previews & Best Bets: Inter Milan vs. Juventus Betting Preview (May 11)

Coppa Italia Final Odds, Picks, Previews & Best Bets: Inter Milan vs. Juventus Betting Preview (May 11) article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Inter Milan teammates Edin Džeko, left, and Lautaro Martínez.

  • Juventus faces Inter Milan on Wednesday in the Coppa Italia finale.
  • Inter Milan is the +120 ML favorite, but analyst Nick Hennion is avoiding a side.
  • Check out below why he has found value on a play from the prop market.

Inter Milan vs. Juventus Odds

Inter Odds +120
Juventus Odds +225
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -125)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Having already lifted the Italian Supercoppa, Inter Milan looks to dispatch Juventus again as it seeks the Coppa Italia silverware in Wednesday’s finale.

Inter, which took down rival AC Milan in the semifinal round to reach the championship, has dominated Juventus this campaign. The Nerazzurri arrive at this fixtures winners in two consecutive games against The Old Lady and unbeaten in three contests.

Juventus, which cruised past Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia semifinals, is seeking its second consecutive cup crown after claiming the 2021 trophy.

Inter Milan Enjoying Dominant Coppa Run

Since its 3-2 victory over Empoli in the Coppa Italia Round of 16 of the competition, Inter has encountered little resistance.

It has kept three consecutive clean sheets in one match against Roma and two against AC Milan. Further, it has done no worse than a draw in terms of big scoring chances in those four contests and has surrendered only two big chances in those four fixtures.

Further, Inter arrives at this final in very good form. In its last five outings across all competitions, manager Simone Inzaghi’s side has won the big scoring chances battle by a 17-7 margin and notched at least two goals in six of its last seven games overall.

Positive defensive regression could be on the way for Inter as well. Just in its last four Serie A fixtures, it has conceded six goals on 3.8 xG, per fbref.com.

However, Inter has simultaneously come up lucky against Juventus this season. In two Serie A meetings, Inter is 1-0-1 (W-L-D), but has lost each match on xG in the process. Further, it has conceded only once on 3.5 xG overall.

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Juventus Hoping End Season on High Note

For manager Max Allegri’s side, the Coppa Italia represents a chance to put a silver lining on an otherwise disappointing season.

Much like Inter, Juventus has cruised into the final. It has won all four Coppa Italia matches and has won the cumulative big scoring chances battle, 10-3, two of which were surrendered to Fiorentina in the first leg of the semifinals.

However, this is also a Juventus defense that has proven unimpressive of late. Just in its last four Serie A fixtures, Juventus has surrendered 1.6 xG per 90 minutes and at least 1.5 xG to both Sassuolo and Genoa, which are bottom-half teams in the league.

And even though Juventus has come up unlucky in two Serie A contests against Inter, it struggled greatly in the Supercoppa Final. In that match, Allegri’s side allowed 23 total shots and two big scoring chances.

That said, Juventus’ attack has proven solid of late. Dating back to March 6, it has generated 2.09 big scoring chances/90 minutes across 11 fixtures, per fotmob.com.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

From where I’m sitting, the motivation in this fixture is greater on Juventus’ side.

Inter is still chasing rival AC Milan for the league title (the club is two points down with two matches to play) and already has a trophy to its name this season. However, the associated prices don’t warrant jumping in on Juventus, as I’d need +130 on the Draw No Bet line to justify action.

That said, I do see value in this match in the prop market, specifically the Both Teams To Score wager.  Both clubs arrive on a bit of a BTTS streak — Inter in four consecutive matches; Juventus in  five of six games — and have seen three of the last four head-to-head meetings feature goals for both giants.

Additionally, I believe that combining Juventus’ case for positive offensive regression against Inter with its poor defensive record justifies a higher price in this market.

I have both teams to score valued at -140, so I’m happy to take a shot at -130 odds as my top selection.

Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-130)

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