Wednesday Euro 2020 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: England vs Denmark Preview (July 7)

Wednesday Euro 2020 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: England vs Denmark Preview (July 7) article feature image
Credit:

Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: England’s Raheem Sterling, Jack Grealish and Jordan Henderson

  • England is a favorite over Denmark in Euro 2020 semifinal action on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Denmark has been the darling of the tournament after Christian Eriksen collapsed in the opening match, while England is looking to win its first major international competition in more than 50 years.
  • Get our England vs. Denmark betting pick and model predictions below.

England vs. Denmark Odds

England Odds -137
Denmark Odds +430
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (+138 / -167)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch ESPN | fuboTV
Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.

England looks to take another step toward its first Euro title when it hosts Denmark in Wednesday’s semifinal match in London.

Soccer is closer and closer to coming home for England, which has not won a major international tournament since the 1966 World Cup. This edition of the England national team is perhaps the most talented, complete team left in the Euro 2020, with everything set up perfectly for the tournament favorite.

The semifinal and final are both going to be played at Wembley Stadium, so there are no excuses for the Three Lions to not bring home the title.

Denmark has been labeled as the “team of destiny” in this tournament and what we’ve learned throughout history is it’s hard to bet against destiny. Only three weeks ago, the Danish team was praying for a miracle as medical personnel were saving the life of star player Christian Eriksen on the pitch.

Now, almost miraculously, Eriksen is doing better and the Danes are a win from the championship match.

This game truly has unbelievable storylines surrounding it, and as soccer commentator Ian Darke would say, “You cannot write a script like this.”

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Unbeaten England Putting Up Dominate Performances

The Three Lions looked fantastic against Ukraine. They controlled and managed the game well, looked lively on the counter and were deadly swinging crosses into the area, which Denmark is going to have to be ready for in this matchup.

What will be interesting about this contest is who controls more possession, because England has shown so far in this tournament they can be successful without a large share of the possession. That has allowed it to play an incredibly successful low block.

Give England credit, because to this point in the tournament it has not allowed a goal and only let their opponents create 3.37 expected goals. The Three Lions have conceded the second fewest shot-creating actions, and allowed third fewest passes in their own final third of the field.

What I’m interested in seeing is how England decides to play this match. Are the Three Lions going to play with the handbrake on and use that low block for most the game like they did against Germany or do they come out on the front foot and put pressure on Denmark’s back line like they did against Ukraine?

For sure, England has the talent and pace to dismantle Denmark’s back line. The only question is will they or play more defensive and manage the game?

Denmark Might Be Playing Best of All Nations

The Danes have been perhaps the most impressive team in the semifinals, completely dominating their opponents on the way to the final four, as they’ve won the expected-goals battle in four of their five matches.

Denmark’s route to the Euro 2020 Semi-finals:#DEN (1.87) 0-1 (0.52) #FIN#DEN (2.35) 1-2 (0.98) #BEL#DEN (2.47) 4-1 (1.03) #RUS#DEN (3.13) 4-0 (0.60) #WAL#DEN (1.57) 2-1 (1.63) #CZE

Some unreal performances 🔥

— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) July 5, 2021

The Danish offense has somehow been unstoppable without their best offensive player in Eriksen. Against Russia, Wales and the Czech Republic, they Denmark created a combined 7.17 xG to 3.26 xG. The Danes also have the second most passes in the penalty area; third most shot creating actions; and, the second most touches in the opponent’s final third, according to FBref.

That said, England is going to have its work cut out for itself on the defensive end of the pitch. 

As you can see, though, this Danish side hasn’t really been tested outside of a second half against Belgium when it brought on Kevin de Bryune at the intermission and completely dominated the final 45 minutes. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see how the Danes’ back line handles Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and company going forward.

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England vs. Denmark Pick

Having home-field advantage for the semifinal — and potentially the final — is huge for England. I also think its defense will be able to shut down the high-flying Danish attack with its low block.

For those reasons, I’m going to continue to trust England’s defense and its talent going forward in attack and back the nation to win this match in regular time at -137 via DraftKings and would play it up to -150 odds.

Pick: England ML (-137)

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