European Betting Preview, Feb 1-4: Can Bayern Munich Gain Ground in the Bundesliga Title Race?
- Juventus (Italy Serie A) and Barcelona (Spain La Liga) are coasting to domestic league titles, but the German Bundesliga is still extremely tight with Bayern Munich and Dortmund both listed at -110 odds to win it.
- We break down the title races and betting market in all the major European soccer leagues this weekend, including Italy, Spain, Germany, France and Netherlands.
Overs crushed it across Europe last weekend, compiling a 20-7-2 record in Germany’s Bundesliga (7-1-1), Italy’s Serie A (8-2-0), and Spain’s La Liga (5-4-1).
There were plenty of results that affected title races and relegation spots, and we’ve got another action-packed slate for Super Bowl weekend.
Below I’ve examined the betting market in Spain, Italy and Germany, as well as taking a look at other leagues around Europe including France, Netherlands and Scotland.
Spain La Liga
Barcelona still hold a five-point lead over Atletico Madrid and ten-point lead on Real Madrid for top spot in La Liga. Current odds to win the title are Barcelona (-1000), Atletico Madrid (+900) and Real Madrid (+1500).
This weekend it’s Barcelona and Real Madrid with favorable matchups while Atletico Madrid face a stern foe in Real Betis.
Bettors are banking on easy wins from Barcelona and Real Madrid, but public wagers have been much more spread out for Atletico Madrid-Real Betis.
The biggest line moves so far have been toward Huesca (+125), Levante (+140) and Villarreal (-120).
Italy Serie A
Goals were flying in last weekend across the league with a plethora of crazy matches. However, the most important match may have been the 0-0 draw between Napoli and AC Milan, as it looks inconceivable that anyone can catch Juventus for the title at this point.
Juve earned a valiant 2-1 comeback victory over Lazio to push their lead at the top of the table to 11 points with just 17 games remaining.
They are now enormous -5000 favorites to win Serie A for the eighth consecutive season, and it doesn’t appear likely that they’ll slip up this weekend as -600 favorites against Parma.
Much lower down the table, Bologna’s loss was so bad (4-0 at home to Frosinone) that they sacked their head coach following the match, already the eighth coaching change in Serie A this season.
The biggest line moves this weekend have been toward Torino (+125), Fiorentina (+125) and Atalanta (-145).
It’s still a two-horse title race between Bayern Munich and Dortmund with both clubs listed at -110 odds to hoist the trophy, but Dortmund possess a six-point lead at the top of the table.
Each club will face tough opponents on the road this weekend, although this could be an opportunity for Bayern Munich to make up some ground. Savvy bettors have been fading Dortmund (at Frankfurt), so there’s a decent chance that the gap will narrow.
Teams seeing the most line movement have been RB Leipzig (-170), Frankfurt (+220) and Hertha Berlin (+130).
Other leagues around Europe
France Ligue 1: PSG earned another blowout win last weekend to remain 13 points ahead of second-place Lille with two games in hand. If PSG win those matches, they’ll have a completely insurmountable 19-point lead at the top.
This weekend’s match against third-place Lyon may pose a bit of a problem, but PSG are still -120 road favorites. Expect public bettors to pound PSG at that price, so this may be the weekend to lay off of the French giants.
Toward the bottom of the table, Monaco lost once again and were red carded for the third time in four matches. Incredibly, they’re -130 favorites to beat Toulouse this weekend, something I wouldn’t be keen on betting.
Netherlands Eredivisie: Last weekend, Ajax were shocked at Feyenoord, 6-2, while PSV held on to beat Groningen, 2-1. PSV now hold a five point lead at the top of the table and are -160 favorites to win the title. Ajax are currently +130 underdogs.
If you paid attention last week, you were aware that PSV were still being offered at +105 odds, showing how heavily one match can sway the odds.
The top of the standings likely won’t change after this weekend with PSV and Ajax massive favorites to win their matches, but of course nothing is for certain.
Scotland Premiership: At the top of the table, Celtic and Rangers were both victorious last weekend, but Kilmarnock drew 0-0 vs. Aberdeen to fall into a tie for second place.
This weekend, Celtic (-255) and Rangers (-665) are considerable favorites to win, but Kilmarnock (+140) have a difficult match on Friday vs. Hearts. We could see the Premiership turn into a two-horse race between Celtic and Rangers for the remainder of the season, just like old times.
Want live updates of the action this weekend? Be sure to follow @actionnetsoccer for all the latest soccer betting news around the market.