FA Cup Fourth Round Betting Preview: Arsenal Slight Favorites to Beat Manchester United
Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal and Manchester United battling in EPL action
- There's no EPL action this weekend, but there are 16 FA Cup Fourth Round matches being played, including Arsenal-Manchester United (Friday, 2:55 p.m. ET on ESPN+).
- 13 of the remaining 32 clubs come from the Premier League, but a maximum of 9 will feature in the Round of 16 due to matchups.
- We've broken down the betting market to find out where the public and sharp money has been going.
The FA Cup Fourth Round takes place this weekend with 16 total matches, six of which will be played in London.
There are 13 Premier League teams in action including four all-EPL matchups: Arsenal-Manchester United, Manchester City-Burnley, Crystal Palace-Tottenham and Newcastle-Watford.
Here’s a look at the latest odds and betting breakdowns (based on 90 minutes regulation):
Arsenal vs. Manchester United is the marquee matchup of the Round of 32 and the Gunners (+150) have the slight edge at home.
It’s almost a shame that this game isn’t taking place deeper into the tournament since these are the two most storied clubs in the competition’s history.
The FA Cup has been a strong tournament for Arsenal over the years despite their EPL and Champions League letdowns, and this is their best chance to win a trophy this season.
However, they have to face a streaking Manchester United club which has won seven straight matches in all competitions under new manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær. The Red Devils are listed at +170 to make it eight consecutive victories, a very enticing price for casual bettors.
The draw (+245) is listed with the longest odds likely because neither club wants a replay. Both sides will be aiming to settle this match in regulation, but moneylines have barely budged off the opening numbers. Sportsbooks are taking balanced action and don’t see any reason to shift the odds.
Although this is a different tournament/competition, it should be noted that nearly 80% of Manchester United’s Premier League matches have seen three or more goals scored, and Arsenal’s defense just got even shakier with the season-long loss of Hector Bellerin. I would definitely lean toward the over (2.5) goals scored on Friday night.
Manchester City-Burnley isn’t expected to be very close and could get very ugly. Man City are listed at -1100, making them the biggest Fourth Round favorites, and they have ~90% chance of victory.
Man City already have a 9-0 win in EFL Cup action this season and this match could get out of hand, too, with an over/under of 4 goals. If you happen to like Burnley, as crazy as that is, make sure you’re shopping for the best line possible– they’re as high as +3500 but as low as +1900.
Chelsea (-470 vs. Sheffield Wed) and Tottenham (+155 at Crystal Palace) both had to play EFL Cup matches during the week and could be at a slight disadvantage on Sunday afternoon. Chelsea are still fully expected to win, but Spurs are definitely in for a fight, especially with a growing list of injuries including Dele Alli and Harry Kane.
Bettors tend to agree, and odds have shifted toward Crystal Palace (+185) since opening. Public tickets will continue to flow in on Spurs, but sharp bettors have been hitting Palace. This will be a great opportunity to take the contrarian home side, but don’t wait too long or odds will worsen.
Barnet vs. Brentford won’t garner a ton of attention, but I’m intrigued since Barnet have the lowest ranking for any of the 32 remaining teams. They’re also the only non-League side left in the competition, and they have the benefit of playing a home match this round. Barnet are listed as +550 underdogs to win and +320 to draw, while Brentford are -200 favorites to win in regulation.