Friday Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern Munich (Jan. 8)

Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern Munich Odds

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Things could get pretty heated Friday when powerhouse Bayern Munich hits the road for a match against Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga action.

The Bavarians, who sit two points clear of RB Leipzig atop the table, enter this affair winners of three on the bounce. Most recently, Bayern Munich received two goals from Robert Lewandowski in Sunday's 5-2 home victory over Mainz 05 at Allianz Arena.

On the other side, M'Gladbach snapped a four-game, league winless skid with a 1-0 shutout win over Arminia. It was a crucial result for the Foals, who have slipped to seventh in Germany's top flight and need to make a second-half run to secure a coveted Champions League spot.

Let's take a look at what could be on deck for these sides in this showdown.

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Mönchengladbach

This really is a crucial game for the Foals, who have been anything but spectacular as of late.

That shutout against Arminia, along with a 5-0 rout of Elversberg in the second round of DFB-Pokal tournament play, were obvious bright spots for manager Marco Rose and his club. However, those wins against inferior foes came directly after a six-game winless streak in UCL and league play.

Offensively, M'Gladbach has been fine. The club has scored at least one goal in 18 of its 20 games across all competitions. The problems, though, have occurred at the other end of the park. The Foals have just one clean sheet in their last 10 outings, which should be cause for concern for the outfit.

If you look at M'Gladbach's overall statistics, you find a club generating positive things all over the field. The Foals sit on a solid 25.5 expected goals and modest 18.2 expected goals against, resulting in a stellar +7.3 xGDiff and +0.52 xGDiff/90 minutes.

M'Gladbach's numbers for xGDiff and xGDiff/90, which rank fourth overall among the league's 18 teams, are good enough to secure a top-four finish. The club just needs this stellar data to translate into positive results on the pitch.

Bayern Munich

It has pretty much been business as usual for the reigning Champions League titleholders, who would love create some distance from Leipzig on the table.

Manager Hans-Dieter Flick had to be encouraged by his side's goal eruption against Mainz, which came on the heels of back-to-back, 2-1 victories over Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen.

Lewandowski continues to lead the vaunted Bayern Munich attack with his league-best 19 goals through 14 fixtures. The Polish international's goal haul is nine better than Borussia Dortmund star Erling Håland (10 goals) in the Golden Boot race.

When comparing advanced metrics with M'Gladbach, Bayern Munich maintains an overall edge. However, the Bavarians' advantage isn't as large as you'd might expect.

Bayern Munich boasts a brilliant 29.8 expected goals and 19.4 expected goals against, resulting in a decent +10.4 xGDiff and +0.74 for xGDiff/90 minutes. It goes without saying these numbers are impressive, but they're not the kind of stats that should strike fear in the opposition.

Specifically, the Bavarians haven't been as crisp on the defensive side. Bayern Munich ranks a surprising seventh in xGA in the league, so there is plenty of room for improvement in that area over the course of the rest of the campaign.

Betting Analysis & Picks

On paper, this really looks like a prime spot for Bayern Munich to maintain or expand its Bundesliga lead via a winning performance at Borussia Park.

Sure, M'Gladbach is coming off consecutive wins after a rough patch of results and should be up for this ultra-important fixture against the European giant. However, that victory against Arminia left much to be desired and still has me believing the Foals need to improve in their quest for a top-four league finish.

That said, I am backing Bayern Munich to get the road win in this spot. The number, currently at minus-175, is a tad high for my taste, so you might want to wait for a better live number early in the first half. I wouldn't let it drop past -150 if you choose to go that route, though.

I will also play the total staying under the alternative number of four goals. Six of the last eight combined league matches these sides played finished with three goals or less. This should be a tight affair, one in which the Bavarians will likely do just enough to secure a three-point result.

Picks: Bayern Munich ML (-175) | Under 4 Goals (-155)