Fulham vs. Newcastle Betting Preview: How to Bet the Home Favorite (Saturday, October 1)

Fulham vs. Newcastle Betting Preview: How to Bet the Home Favorite (Saturday, October 1) article feature image

Clive Rose/Getty Images. Pictured: Aleksandar Mitrovic of Fulham.

  • Fulham and Newcastle will face off in Premier League action Saturday morning.
  • Newcastle has better odds entering the matchup, but both teams are dealing with key injuries.
  • Brett Pund breaks down how he's betting the matchup below.

Fulham vs. Newcastle Odds

Fulham Odds+200
Newcastle Odds+135
Over/Under2.5 (-116 / -106)
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 a.m. ET
How To WatchPeacock
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Following the international break, Fulham welcomes Newcastle United to West London Saturday for a match between two teams in the top half of the Premier League table. The Cottagers have been one of the biggest surprises so far this campaign, coming into the weekend in sixth on 11 points.

Meanwhile, the Magpies have been held back by injuries to key players, but they still find themselves in 10th. This should be an excellent match at Craven Cottage, where I feel the home underdogs have a lot of value in this one.

Let's break down the match.

Will Fulham Dominate Without a Key Player?

Promoted as the EFL Championship winner, Fulham has gotten off to an excellent start in the club’s return to the English top-flight, which includes strong performances at home.

In the three home fixtures, the Cottagers are undefeated in wins over Brentford and Brighton to go with a draw with Liverpool. Manager Marco Silva’s team has particularly been a great attacking side at home, averaging 1.567 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com, and scoring multiple goals in all three games.

One big reason for this has been the play of star striker Aleksandar Mitrović. The former Newcastle forward has six goals in seven starts and owns a 0.71 expected goals per 90 minutes average.

Silva will be without key midfielder João Palhinha due to suspension, but with a couple of weeks to prepare, he should have a game plan to cope without the Portuguese international.

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Can Newcastle Compete at Half Strength?

The hosts will not be the only team without important players this weekend as Newcastle could also be missing a few starters for the trip to London.

Record signing Alexander Isak picked up an injury during the break while playing for Sweden, which could sideline the striker for three weeks.

He joins Allan Saint-Maximin and Chris Wood on the injury list, while attackers Callum Wilson and Bruno Guimaraes also have both missed games recently.

It does sound more positive for Wilson and Guimaraes to feature in this one, but the Magpies will still not be at full strength for the trip to the capital.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Looking at the odds for this fixture, Newcastle comes in as the favorite at +135 odds to go with a total set at 2.5 goals.

There are a lot of question marks over who will be starting in this match for the visitors, which is why I’m backing Fulham on the Draw No Bet market at +120.

Since Howe became the manager on Tyneside last season, Newcastle has posted a -7.2 xGDiff away from home and averaged less than one expected goal in the 16 road matches.

This doesn’t bode well when you are missing key attackers, especially against a Fulham side that has proven to be tough to beat at home.

If the Cottagers had Palhinha, this would be a bet on the full moneyline, but I’ll play it a bit safer to push in case there is a draw.

The Pick: Fulham — Draw no Bet (+120)

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