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Monday La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Getafe vs. Real Sociedad Preview (June 29)

Monday La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Getafe vs. Real Sociedad Preview (June 29) article feature image

David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Angel

  • Getafe is favored over Real Sociedad in La Liga action on Monday, with the total at 2.
  • Michael Leboff is banking on little offense and betting this match to finish in a draw at north of +190.

Real Sociedad at Getafe Odds, Pick

Real Sociedad odds +215 [BET NOW]
Getafe odds +150 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +195 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2 (-112/-109)
Time Monday at 4 p.m. ET
TV beIN Sports

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

When La Liga restarted its season earlier this month both Getafe and Real Sociedad were in contention for a Champions League spot. A few weeks later and dreams of European nights are slowly fading to black for both clubs.

Neither Getafe nor Real Sociedad have recorded a win since La Liga came back and the two sides have combined for just four total points in eight combined matches.

A win on Monday could re-ignite some hope for Champions League football for the victor while the loser would be left scrapping for a Europa League spot.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Getafe Real Sociedad
Goals for per game 1.29 1.52
Expected goals for per game 1.33 1.54
Goals against per game 0.94 1.26
Expected goals against per game 1.14 1.33
Total goals per game 2.23 2.77
Total expected goals per game 2.47 2.88

According to expected points, no team has played worse than Real Sociedad this month. La Real have scored twice and created just 2.33 expected goals in their last four matches. And it’s not like Sociedad has had to endure a brutal schedule coming back from the hiatus. Sociedad expectedly couldn’t hang with Real Madrid in a 2-1 loss, but that result is sandwiched between a draw against Osasuna and a pair of losses to Alaves and Celta Vigo.

Sociedad is in shambles and it’s sputtering offense will now have to break down a defense that ranks fifth in La Liga in expected goals against.

Even though they’ve been the better than Sociedad since the break, Getafe have been pedestrian in their last four matches. The Azulones haven’t lost since play resumed, but they have played a cake schedule featuring three teams ranked 14th or worse. Getafe’s -0.58 xG differential in those four matches is a bit worrisome.

Overall, Getafe’s attack grades out as average but it hasn’t even been up to those standards lately, as Los Azulones have produced just 4.29 xG in their last four matches against sub-par competition.

In fact, Getafe’s best performance since the restart came in an unlucky 0-0 draw last-place Espanyol. If you take out that match, Getafe are averaging 0.76 xG for per match since they returned to play.

It’s never a bad idea to give the draw a good look in a match with a low total and that’s exactly what I plan to do on Monday. I don’t expect either team will run away with this contest, so the draw should be within reach throughout the match.

Picks: Draw +195

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