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La Liga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Including Getafe vs. Grenada

La Liga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Including Getafe vs. Grenada article feature image
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Joaquin Corchero/Europa Press via Getty Images. Pictured: Granada goalkeeper Luís Maximiano.

Following a weekend packed with Copa del Rey action, La Liga returns for a midweek slate that includes five matches over three days and a big opportunity in the title race.

The headliner of the fixtures is Sevilla making a trip to Valencia on Wednesday, with a win moving the visiting side to within two points of league leader Real Madrid. This is the game in hand the Andalusian club has over Madrid, which makes it even more vital to take advantage of this opportunity.

As for the other games, Real Betis looks to keep its place in next season’s Champions League with a victory against Alavés, while potential relegation sides Cádiz and Getafe continue their fights to stay in the Spanish top flight.

It should be an entertaining and important set of fixtures, but here are my three best bets of the schedule.

La Liga Best Bets

Celta Vigo vs. Osasuna

Celta Vigo Odds -110
Osasuna Odds +340
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (+120 / -150)
Day | Time Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET
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Our first bet comes from the match featuring Celta Vigo and Osasuna, which is a fixture I’m not expecting to generate many goals.

If you look over their last five league games, these two teams have been combining for some of the lowest expected goals numbers. Osasuna’s matches have averaged 2.05 combined xG, according to fbref.com, which is a number that drops below two goals on average if you remove the recent outlier contest against Cádiz.

This is also the same Osasuna team that ranks in top five in the league with just 1.02 xG allowed per match, while also being one of the five worst teams offensively with 0.98 xG per 90 minutes.

As for Celta Vigo, its last five matches have averaged 2.3 combined xG goals, but if you remove the win over Betis that included 3.6 xG, the average drops to 1.98 per outing.

I try to avoid betting over -130 to -135 odds on games, which is why I’ll be playing the total staying under 2.25 goals on the Asian Handicap at  -115 odds. If you want the extra protection, I don’t hate laying -150 odds to get the full 2.5 goals on the total, but with either bet, it still takes three goals to fully beat you.

Pick: Total Under 2.25 Goals (-115)

Valencia vs. Sevilla

Valencia Odds +215
Sevilla Odds +140
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+125 / -160)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:30 p.m. ET
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For the most important match of the midweek slate, Valencia hosts second-place Sevilla and I think there’s great value in taking the home underdog.

This game pits together sides that enter the contest on great form, with the visitors undefeated in their last six league games and Valencia picking up 10 points in five outings.

However, Sevilla hasn’t been dominating teams in this stretch, posting a -3.3 xG difference and losing the expected goals battle in four of six games. This is also the same club that has averaged just 0.53 xG per match in that span.

Set pieces are going to play a major role in this match, with the sides combining for 18 goals from set pieces. Meanwhile, Valencia is one of the worst teams at defending set pieces, allowing seven goals this campaign.

At some point, Sevilla won’t be able to get away with poor performances, and in such a high-pressure game on the road, I think this is a great spot to oppose the favorite on either the Draw No Bet line (+120) or Asian Handicap markets.

Pick: Valencia — Draw No Bet (+120)

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Getafe vs. Granada

Getafe Odds +110
Granada Odds +300
Draw +220
Over/Under 1.5 (-170 / +135)
Day | Time Thursday | 1 p.m. ET
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The final game of the slate is between teams in the bottom half of the table in Getafe and Granada, which is another spot where all of the value lies with the underdog.

The visitors have been on their best form of the season, entering this match undefeated in their last seven in the league with a +1.1 xGDiff during that span.

Meanwhile, Getafe has also been solid the last month with just one loss in its last seven fixtures, including an upset of Real Madrid.

This is still the same side that has only averaged 0.89 xG per match during that stretch and has the lowest season average for the same stat this season (0.71) in La Liga.

Granada has also had a knack of picking up draws away from home, with Athletic Club (eight) only having more away draws than Granada’s six this campaign.

Because of the high amount of stalemates , this is a spot where I’m going to pay up on Granada getting +0.5 on the spread line at -135 odds, but I don’t hate the +0.25 number at +105 if you want a better price.

Pick: Granada +0.5 (-135)

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