Atlético Madrid vs. Barcelona Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: The Plus-Money Prop to Bet

Atlético Madrid vs. Barcelona Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: The Plus-Money Prop to Bet article feature image
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Pedro Salado/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Barcelona star Memphis Depay.

  • Barcelona and Atlético Madrid do battle on Saturday afternoon in La Liga action.
  • With Atlético as a favorite, we're looking at a late goal prop, or an exact margin bet on the home side.
  • Here's how we're betting this heavyweight La Liga match:

Atlético Madrid vs. Barcelona

Atlético Madrid Odds -115
Barcelona Odds +340
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
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All eyes in Spain this weekend will be on the big matchup at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium on Saturday where defending champion Atlético Madrid hosts a struggling Barcelona side.

The home team is back in league action after suffering its first loss of the season at Alavés last week. And although it’s undefeated through six games, this start to the campaign has been more negative than positive for the visiting Catalan club.

Most of the recent history of this fixture has been dominated by Barcelona, who has won seven of the last 11 between the two teams at the Wanda and only lost once.

When you throw in the recent transfers of Luis Suárez and Antoine Griezmann between the two clubs, it just adds a little more spice to what was already going to be a feisty and important contest.

Atlético Madrid Coming Off Big Champions League Win

When you look at Atlético Madrid on paper, it definitely looks like the strongest side in La Liga, but it hasn’t all clicked just yet for the club this season.

Manager Diego Simeone’s side did pick up a big victory on the road at AC Milan on Wednesday in the Champions League, and it was another in dramatic fashion.

Atlético has consistently scored late in games to rescue wins or draws, scoring in the 91st minute to beat Getafe; 95th minute for a draw versus Villarreal; 97th minute in the triumph in Milan; and, 99th minute in the win at Espanyol.

As usual, Simeone has his team very organized defensively, ranking second in the league in expected goals against (5.2), according to fbref.com, and in the top six in goals against with six this season.

Once all of the attacking talent comes together, this Atlético squad will be pushing for back-to-back league titles and a long Champions League run.

Barcelona Looking for Answers This Season

Although it has yet to lose in the league this campaign, there hasn’t been much positivity around the Barcelona camp. Ronald Koeman’s managerial seat will be very hot entering the weekend following another embarrassing defeat in the Champions League via a 3-0 shutout at Benfica last time out.

In their two games in the European competition, the Spanish giants have been outscored 6-0 and have only registered one shot on target.

There are some positive points to its play in the league so far if you look at the advanced stats for Barcelona, where it ranks in the top four in xGDiff per 90 minutes (+0.71) and xG per match (1.73) in the categories.

I don’t know if there’s much that can save Koeman’s job with the international break coming next week, but a win over the champions might buy him some more time. Unfortunately, he’s suspended for this match, so he might not even be on the touchline for his final game in charge.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As you would expect, Atlético enters the contest as the favorite, with DraftKings setting the moneyline at -115 in favor of the home side to go with a total of 2.5 juiced to the under at -125 odds.

With all the drama on and off the pitch, I’m not rushing to the window to back Barcelona, and I think the books have this game listed about right. My best bet is coming from the props market, where I’ll be playing the Yes to a Goal Scored Between 76th Minute and Full Time bet at +110 odds.

I mentioned all the notes above about the late goals from Simeone’s team, but Koeman’s squad has been no stranger to late goals as well. When you look at the eight games in all competitions for Barcelona, the same bet would have cashed in five of those fixtures.

If you’re looking to back Atlético, I don’t hate the exact margin of victory by one goal at +215, as it’s how Simeone’s squad has won its last nine dating back to last season. However, this could be a spot where the visitors officially quit on its suspended coach to end his time at the club.

Pick: Yes — Goal Scored Between 76th Minute and Full Time (+110)

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