Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest Expert Betting Preview: Buy Low on the Foxes at Home

Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest Expert Betting Preview: Buy Low on the Foxes at Home article feature image

Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City standout Jamie Vardy.

  • Leicester City are home favorites against Nottingham Forest in Monday's Premier League match.
  • The Foxes have been in a slump of late, but is this a good time to buy low on them after they have faced elite competition of late?
  • Nicholas Hennion breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Leicester City vs. Nottingham Forest Odds

Leicester Odds-135
Forest Odds+333
Over/Under2.5 (-160 / +115)
Day | TimeMonday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchTV | USA Network
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

To close out this week's Premier League slate, 20th-place Leicester City welcomes 19th-place Nottingham Forest to the King Power Stadium.

Hosts Leicester were within striking distance of Tottenham Hotspur in their most recent fixture, but a last-gasp hat-trick from Son Heung-Min resigned them to a 6-2 defeat. On the flip-side, Forest dropped all three points at home against Fulham, their fourth straight defeat in the league.

These sides last met in February 2022 in the FA Cup. In a match at Forest, the hosts eclipsed visiting Leicester 4-1.

Leicester City

Leicester City have looked horrendous to start the season, but they have simultaneously faced a brutal schedule.

Through seven matches, the Foxes have produced a -9.35 Expected Goals On Target Differential and -11 Big Scoring Chances Differential. However, the current average table position of those seven opponents is 4.5.

Additionally, manager Brendan Rodgers' side has faced four opponents away from home that sit first, third, fourth and fifth in the current table.

If there's a case for optimism with Leicester, it's that last season it dominated newly-promoted sides. In six matches against Brentford, Watford and Norwich City, Leicester finished 6-0-0 (W-L-D) while posting a 1.85 xG/90 minutes rate and +0.26 xGDiff/90 minutes, per fbref.com.

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Nottingham Forest

In its first season in the English top-flight, Forest has fashioned itself a mess defensively.

Manager Steve Cooper's side ranks dead last in the Premier League in Expected Goals Against and ranks second-to-last in Road Expected Goals Against, per fbref.com.

Even if you remove fixtures against Big Six sides, the Forest defense is still conceding 1.6 xG/90 minutes, good for second-worst in the Premier League.

Offensively, things aren't much better either. Only four teams are worse in Expected Goals On Target than Forest, which has managed only 1.43 Big Scoring Chances per 90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

If one were to look up the dictionary definition of a "buy-low" spot, that individual would see a Leicester logo next to that entry.

I recognize that Leicester has no business being an odds-on favorite in this spot, but this will simultaneously be the worst side it has faced this season. Plus, the Foxes appear to be turning a corner offensively – in their last two fixtures against Brighton and Tottenham, they have netted 1.48 and 2.08 xGOT, respectively.

If there's a unit to be trusted on the Forest side, it's the defense. Personally, I don't expect that group will suddenly figure out how to defend, especially against a Leicester attack that is both talented and has dominated Premier League newcomers.

For those reasons, I'll hold my nose and back Leicester to succeed at home. Back the hosts on the three-way moneyline up to -140.

The Pick: Leicester City Moneyline (-135) 

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